CAJ | 학술논문

依据人口长期均衡发展的内涵和中原经济区实际，构建了中原经济区人口长期均衡发展的评价体系和评价模型。评价体系包括4个层级，选取了18个评价指标。参照多个标准确定了指标阈值，运用模糊隶属度函数方法对各个指标进行标准化处理，采用层次分析法确定相关层级指标权重。并运用2012年度的统计数据，对区域内28个地市以及整个区域的人口长期均衡发展情况进行测算和评价。研究表明：中原经济区的人口均衡发展水平略低于全国平均水平，但差距很小；区域内各地市之间的发展水平不均衡，不同指标的发展程度也不均衡。从影响均衡程度的关键因素看，人口质量和人口分布是制约人口自身均衡发展的主要因素，人口与社会的均衡状况、人口与资源的均衡状况对人口与外部系统的均衡制约最大。制定并完善相应的公共政策体系有助于促进区域的人口长期均衡发展。
의거인구장기균형발전적내함화중원경제구실제，구건료중원경제구인구장기균형발전적평개체계화평개모형。평개체계포괄4개층급，선취료18개평개지표。삼조다개표준학정료지표역치，운용모호대속도함수방법대각개지표진행표준화처리，채용층차분석법학정상관층급지표권중。병운용2012년도적통계수거，대구역내28개지시이급정개구역적인구장기균형발전정황진행측산화평개。연구표명：중원경제구적인구균형발전수평략저우전국평균수평，단차거흔소；구역내각지시지간적발전수평불균형，불동지표적발전정도야불균형。종영향균형정도적관건인소간，인구질량화인구분포시제약인구자신균형발전적주요인소，인구여사회적균형상황、인구여자원적균형상황대인구여외부계통적균형제약최대。제정병완선상응적공공정책체계유조우촉진구역적인구장기균형발전。
This paper aims at studying and constructing the set of monitoring and measuring indicators and models for evaluating population long-term equilibrium development of the Central Plains Economic Zone. Based on the meaning of population equilibrium development and regional status, the author establishes evaluation system consisting of four levels and 18 evaluation indicators, and determines the threshold value, the weight and dimen- sionless value of indicators. By using statistical data of the Central Plains Economic Zone, the paper conducts em- pirical testing for the model and the results indicated that population balanced development level is slightly lower than the national average and there are large differences among 28 regions. The population quality and population distribution are the main factors in the population inner balance system; and in the outer population balance sys- tem,the relationship between population and sociality was the key factor, and the relationship between population and resources was the second one. In order to promote population equilibrium development of the Central Plains E- conomic Zone, corresponding public policies should be developed.