CAJ | 학술논문

面对农业巨灾损失风险，我国保险市场的巨灾风险承受能力多大？通过模型选择技术构建农业巨灾保险风险承受能力度量模型，对我国农业巨灾风险承受能力进行仿真评估。仿真结果表明：在农业巨灾保险全覆盖的假设下，根据保物化成本的原则，面对我国平均每年遭受400亿元左右农业成本损失的情况，目前财险市场只能提供200亿元左右的补偿。赔付率仅为50％。当农业成本损失接近3000亿元时，财险行业承受能力也达到极限694亿元，此时赔付率只有23％。相比美国75％的农业巨灾损失赔付率，我国农业巨灾损失赔付率明显过低。这就需要按照“中央统筹协调、地方破题开局、行业急用先建”的“三条线，齐步走”战略，加速推进巨灾保险再保险、巨灾风险基金和巨灾风险债券三位一体的农业巨灾风险分散机制。
면대농업거재손실풍험，아국보험시장적거재풍험승수능력다대？통과모형선택기술구건농업거재보험풍험승수능력도량모형，대아국농업거재풍험승수능력진행방진평고。방진결과표명：재농업거재보험전복개적가설하，근거보물화성본적원칙，면대아국평균매년조수400억원좌우농업성본손실적정황，목전재험시장지능제공200억원좌우적보상。배부솔부위50％。당농업성본손실접근3000억원시，재험행업승수능력야체도겁한694억원，차시배부솔지유23％。상비미국75％적농업거재손실배부솔，아국농업거재손실배부솔명현과저。저취수요안조“중앙통주협조、지방파제개국、행업급용선건”적“삼조선，제보주”전략，가속추진거재보험재보험、거재풍험기금화거재풍험채권삼위일체적농업거재풍험분산궤제。
How is the endurance capacity of China＇s insurance market confronting agricultural catastrophe risk？ This thesis adopts simulated evaluation of endurance capacity of agricultural catastrophe risk by model selection technology. Results show： supposed with the complete coverage of endurance capacity of agricultural catastrophe risk and under the principle of keeping material cost, the insurance market can provide compensation of 20 bil- lion and 69. 4 billion dollars against the agricultural production cost hitting 40 billion dollars and 300 billion re- spectively, with the payment rate remaining 50% and 23%. China＇s payment rate for agricultural catastrophe is too low compared with that of the US which reaches 75%. Therefore, it is necessary to uphold the strategy of ＂Central government coordinating; local government getting off to a good start; industries setting off first＂ to speed up the agricultural catastrophe risk diversification mechanism by the combination of Catastrophe reinsur- ance, Catastrophe funds, and Catastrophe bonds.