CAJ | 학술논문

针对传统经验研究文献忽视空间相关性而导致的研究结论偏颇问题，文章采用经济学较为前沿的空间面板计量方法，利用中国30个省份1999～2009年面板数据，实证检验了旅游发展与经济增长之间的影响关系。研究结果表明：旅游发展呈现出明显的空间自相关性，具有显著空间集聚特征，大部分省份处于高一高和低一低类型区；旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向促进作用，传统面板回归模型没有考虑空间相关性，高估了这一作用；旅游发展对经济增长存在显著空间溢出效应，并具有较强的稳健性。
침대전통경험연구문헌홀시공간상관성이도치적연구결론편파문제，문장채용경제학교위전연적공간면판계량방법，이용중국30개성빈1999～2009년면판수거，실증검험료여유발전여경제증장지간적영향관계。연구결과표명：여유발전정현출명현적공간자상관성，구유현저공간집취특정，대부분성빈처우고일고화저일저류형구；여유발전대경제증장구유현저정향촉진작용，전통면판회귀모형몰유고필공간상관성，고고료저일작용；여유발전대경제증장존재현저공간일출효응，병구유교강적은건성。
Research on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth is not only the core of tourism economics study, but also a long-term hot topic among tourism theorists. Studies on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth are voluminous, but generally they are undertaken using two approaches： theoretical analyses and empirical tests. For a long time, the impact of tourism development on economic growth has been the focus of debate throughout the history of tourism economics research. Mainstream tourism economics literatures believe that tourism development has played a significant role in promoting economic growth. However, skeptics argue that tourism development does not have long and sustainable contributions to economic growth. Thus, this article intends to explore the impact of tourism development one conomic growth in China. A literature review of overseas empirical studies shows that researchers mainly investigate the relationship between tourism development and economic growth through time-series studies and general panei data analysis. Although these researchers are consistent in defining study objects as independent observations in the traditional sense, they ignore the geospatial relevance and dependence of tourism development and economic growth. A basic preliminary judgment is that such studies neglect the spatial spillover effectof tourism development on economic growth. As a result, the findings and explanations of these traditional studies are unconvincing. The literature review indicates that little research incorporates spatial spillover effect into the research framework with regard to the impact of tourism development on economic growth. No foreign literature has touched on this topic. In response to the biased conclusion caused by the neglect of spatial correlation in traditional research, this article adopts space panel measurement, a more cutting-edge method, to analyze 30 provinces＇ panel data during 1999- 2009 in China, and empirically test the relationship between tourism development and economic growth. Research findings indicate that tourism development shows a significant spatial autocorrelation, and remarkable spatial agglomeration features; most provinces are categorized into the high-high and low-low group; tourism development has significant promoting effect on economic growth, the traditional panel regression model overestimated this positive effect due to neglect of the spatial correlation; tourism development has significant and steady spatial spillover effect on economic growth. Tourism development has significant spatial spillover effect on economic growth. This finding indicates the importance of the cooperation to regional tourism strategic alliances. The most critical thing is to establish a market adjustment mechanism for tourism production factors, break administrative barriers, and rationally allocate resource elements. These will help to improve the positive effect of tourism development on economic growth. Second, it＇ s important to strengthen the regional cooperation of tourism market, extend the production chain of tourism products, build complementary tourism product supply system to realize the diffusion and diversion of tourism flows, and ultimately strengthen tourism development＇s spatial spillover effects on economic growth through regional tourism integration. In addition, when provinces plan tourism industry or make related policies, they should have a proactive strategic vision, take full advantage of micro spillover conditions, such as tourism industry cluster, tourism enterprises＇ knowledge spillover, tourism routes design, tourism products promotion, tourist sharing, etc., strengthen cross-regional tourism cooperation, thereby expand the spatial spillover range of tourism development.