CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用2009年《中国城镇居民经济状况与心态调查》数据，从个体差异化的人口统计特征、家庭财务状况、对通胀的感知和经历、感受和态度及其对经济变量走势的判断等人口统计、经济和心理特征多个方面。全面研究了居民物价预期的影响因素．特别是首次系统考察了居民对政府的信任程度以及过往通胀经历对其物价预期的影响，试图更深入地解释居民物价预期异质性的微观基础。从而进一步探究通胀预期的形成机制。研究结果发现．居民对政府的信任度、过往通胀经历以及居民个体的其他众多特征显著影响其物价预期．据此提出了如何管理居民的物价预期进而通胀预期的一些政策性建议．
본문이용2009년《중국성진거민경제상황여심태조사》수거，종개체차이화적인구통계특정、가정재무상황、대통창적감지화경력、감수화태도급기대경제변량주세적판단등인구통계、경제화심리특정다개방면。전면연구료거민물개예기적영향인소．특별시수차계통고찰료거민대정부적신임정도이급과왕통창경력대기물개예기적영향，시도경심입지해석거민물개예기이질성적미관기출。종이진일보탐구통창예기적형성궤제。연구결과발현．거민대정부적신임도、과왕통창경력이급거민개체적기타음다특정현저영향기물개예기．거차제출료여하관리거민적물개예기진이통창예기적일사정책성건의．
Using the survey data reflecting the economic conditions and mental status of Chinese urban households conducted in 2009, this paper analyzes the impact factors of households ＇price expectation from many aspects such as demographic characteristics, economic conditions and mental status. Specially, this paper initially considers two important factors which are households＇trust in the government and their own experience with the past inflation. The purpose is to deeply explain the micro foundation of the heterogeneity of households＇price expectation, which can help explore the formation mechanism of inflation expectation. The results show that the price expectation is significantly affected by households＇ trust in the government, their experience with past inflation and many other individual characteristics. Finally, several policy suggestions on managing households ＇price expectation are proposed according to the findings.