国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2014年
5期
31~41
,共null页
人民币汇率 中美关系 财富权力转化机制 讨价还价策略
人民幣彙率 中美關繫 財富權力轉化機製 討價還價策略
인민폐회솔 중미관계 재부권력전화궤제 토개환개책략
RMB Exchange Rate; Sino-U.S. Relations; Wealth and Power Conversion Mechanism; Bargaining Strategy
中美关系的演变是财富权力转化机制运行的结果.而人民币汇率在该机制运行的诸要素之间起着双向联系的作用。如果美中GDP比值、中关贸易强度、美国对华投资力度与中美关系友好度的关联性显著.则表明财富权力转化机制的运行是有效的。研究结果证实其关联性是显著的,据此推定人民币汇率变动与中美关系的演变相互影响。1949-1978年.中美关系演变对人民币汇率变动起着单向的决定性影响;而1979—1993年两者相互影响。1994年后,人民币汇率对财富权力转化机制运行的有效性影响增大.而中关财富转化能力的消长又影响到中关关系的变化。所以。构建中关新型大国关系.要充分发挥人民币汇率的战略工具作用。
中美關繫的縯變是財富權力轉化機製運行的結果.而人民幣彙率在該機製運行的諸要素之間起著雙嚮聯繫的作用。如果美中GDP比值、中關貿易彊度、美國對華投資力度與中美關繫友好度的關聯性顯著.則錶明財富權力轉化機製的運行是有效的。研究結果證實其關聯性是顯著的,據此推定人民幣彙率變動與中美關繫的縯變相互影響。1949-1978年.中美關繫縯變對人民幣彙率變動起著單嚮的決定性影響;而1979—1993年兩者相互影響。1994年後,人民幣彙率對財富權力轉化機製運行的有效性影響增大.而中關財富轉化能力的消長又影響到中關關繫的變化。所以。構建中關新型大國關繫.要充分髮揮人民幣彙率的戰略工具作用。
중미관계적연변시재부권력전화궤제운행적결과.이인민폐회솔재해궤제운행적제요소지간기착쌍향련계적작용。여과미중GDP비치、중관무역강도、미국대화투자력도여중미관계우호도적관련성현저.칙표명재부권력전화궤제적운행시유효적。연구결과증실기관련성시현저적,거차추정인민폐회솔변동여중미관계적연변상호영향。1949-1978년.중미관계연변대인민폐회솔변동기착단향적결정성영향;이1979—1993년량자상호영향。1994년후,인민폐회솔대재부권력전화궤제운행적유효성영향증대.이중관재부전화능력적소장우영향도중관관계적변화。소이。구건중관신형대국관계.요충분발휘인민폐회솔적전략공구작용。
The evolution of Sino-U.S. relations derives from the operation of wealth and power conversion mechanism, and RMB exchange rate plays an important role in the two-way connection and catalysis between wealth and power. The correlation coefficients between and among GDP ratios, trade intensity, real investment in China and the friendly degree are significant, which suggests that the operation of the wealth and power conversion mechanism is effective, and study results also confirm our expectations. Accordingly, this paper concludes that RMB exchange rate fluctuation and the evolution of Sino-U.S. relations influence each other. During 1949-1978, the evolution of Sino-U.S. relations could exert decisive influence on RMB exchange rate fluctuation, and both influenced each other from1979 to 1993. Since 1994, RMB exchange rate had an ascending influence on wealth and power, and the ebb and flow of transformation ability on wealth and power also affected the change of Sino-U.S. relations. So, to construct new Sino-US relations, China should take full use of RMB exchange rate as a strategic tool.