经济评论
經濟評論
경제평론
Economic Review
2014年
3期
3~15
,共null页
城乡居民社会养老保险 多阶段世代交叠模型 经济结构调整福利 转移效应
城鄉居民社會養老保險 多階段世代交疊模型 經濟結構調整福利 轉移效應
성향거민사회양로보험 다계단세대교첩모형 경제결구조정복리 전이효응
Urban and Rural Residents Pension System; Multi - stage Over - lapping Generations Model; Economic Structure Adjustment; Welfare Transfer
2012年中国基本实现了城乡居民社会养老保险的制度全覆盖。本文通过一个多阶段世代交叠的可计算一般均衡模型,对这一制度给中国经济带来的短期和长期经济效应进行了量化分析。本文有如下发现:其一,城乡居民社会养老保险中的社会统筹机制降低了参保人群的养老储蓄需求,对调整宏观经济中的消费和投资不平衡有一定积极意义,使社会总消费在短期内上升0.4%,而长期资本存量降低0.7%。其二,城乡居民社会养老保险制度的最重要意义在于实现了非参保人群(城镇就业人员)向参保人群(农村居民和城镇非就业人员)的转移,减轻了社会保障的城乡“二元”差异,有效缩小了城乡收入差距并提高了社会总福利;参保人群和非参保人群间的收入差距将下降7%,社会总福利短期和长期将分别提高0.5%和0.4%;如果提高基本养老金水平,这一效应会更为突出。
2012年中國基本實現瞭城鄉居民社會養老保險的製度全覆蓋。本文通過一箇多階段世代交疊的可計算一般均衡模型,對這一製度給中國經濟帶來的短期和長期經濟效應進行瞭量化分析。本文有如下髮現:其一,城鄉居民社會養老保險中的社會統籌機製降低瞭參保人群的養老儲蓄需求,對調整宏觀經濟中的消費和投資不平衡有一定積極意義,使社會總消費在短期內上升0.4%,而長期資本存量降低0.7%。其二,城鄉居民社會養老保險製度的最重要意義在于實現瞭非參保人群(城鎮就業人員)嚮參保人群(農村居民和城鎮非就業人員)的轉移,減輕瞭社會保障的城鄉“二元”差異,有效縮小瞭城鄉收入差距併提高瞭社會總福利;參保人群和非參保人群間的收入差距將下降7%,社會總福利短期和長期將分彆提高0.5%和0.4%;如果提高基本養老金水平,這一效應會更為突齣。
2012년중국기본실현료성향거민사회양로보험적제도전복개。본문통과일개다계단세대교첩적가계산일반균형모형,대저일제도급중국경제대래적단기화장기경제효응진행료양화분석。본문유여하발현:기일,성향거민사회양로보험중적사회통주궤제강저료삼보인군적양로저축수구,대조정굉관경제중적소비화투자불평형유일정적겁의의,사사회총소비재단기내상승0.4%,이장기자본존량강저0.7%。기이,성향거민사회양로보험제도적최중요의의재우실현료비삼보인군(성진취업인원)향삼보인군(농촌거민화성진비취업인원)적전이,감경료사회보장적성향“이원”차이,유효축소료성향수입차거병제고료사회총복리;삼보인군화비삼보인군간적수입차거장하강7%,사회총복리단기화장기장분별제고0.5%화0.4%;여과제고기본양로금수평,저일효응회경위돌출。
China introduced a new pension system for urban and rural residents (without formal jobs) in 2009, and it reached full coverage in 2012. Using a multi - stage over - lapping generations model (Auerbach - Kotlikoff model), this paper quantifies the economic effects of such a pension system. We have the following findings: (1) By providing public basic pensions, this system will reduce the participants' saving demand for retirement, thus it will play a role in China' s economic structure adjustment. Consumption will be boosted by 0.4% in the short run; while capital stock will be lowered by 0. 7% in the long run. (2)This system matters more in welfare transfers. Because the subsidies to the participants (mostly rural residents, they are much poorer than the non -participants who are in the urban formal sector) are financed by a general consumption tax, this system actually includes a transfer from urban ( high income) to rural ( low income) groups. Urban - rural income gap will be narrowed by 7%. The aggregate utility will increase by 0.5% in the short run and 0.4% in the long rim. A higher level of basic pension will bring a more significant improvement.