西北农林科技大学学报：社会科学版
西北農林科技大學學報：社會科學版
서북농림과기대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Northwest Sci-Tech University of Agriculture and Forestry(Social Science)
2014年
3期
91~99
,共null页
农业补贴 消费效应 持久收入假说 消费者补贴等值
農業補貼 消費效應 持久收入假說 消費者補貼等值
농업보첩 소비효응 지구수입가설 소비자보첩등치
agricultural subsidies; consumption effect; permanent income hypothesis; consumer subsidy equiv-alents
基于我国城乡居民消费差距不断扩大的事实，运用持久收入假说理论测算了农村居民持久性收入和暂时性收入，并在此基础上，将持久性收入与农村居民消费总额进行回归分析以衡量其对农村居民消费的边际效应，并取其增加量的负值为消费者补贴等值对农村居民进行直接补贴，以此模拟农业补贴对缩小城乡消费差距的实际效用。研究表明，农业补贴不仅能够显著性影响农村居民的消费结构，加速农村居民从生存型消费向发展型消费的过渡，而且能够有效提高农村居民消费水平，对缩小城乡消费差距发挥重要作用。同时，模拟分析表明，现阶段我国已经具备农业补贴转向的经济环境，并且无论是国内生产总值还是农业生产总值都能够满足农业补贴对财政支出的要求，然而事实上，我国财政支农比重不仅明显偏低，而且提升速度缓慢，财政支农政策与其实际执行力度严重偏颇。
基于我國城鄉居民消費差距不斷擴大的事實，運用持久收入假說理論測算瞭農村居民持久性收入和暫時性收入，併在此基礎上，將持久性收入與農村居民消費總額進行迴歸分析以衡量其對農村居民消費的邊際效應，併取其增加量的負值為消費者補貼等值對農村居民進行直接補貼，以此模擬農業補貼對縮小城鄉消費差距的實際效用。研究錶明，農業補貼不僅能夠顯著性影響農村居民的消費結構，加速農村居民從生存型消費嚮髮展型消費的過渡，而且能夠有效提高農村居民消費水平，對縮小城鄉消費差距髮揮重要作用。同時，模擬分析錶明，現階段我國已經具備農業補貼轉嚮的經濟環境，併且無論是國內生產總值還是農業生產總值都能夠滿足農業補貼對財政支齣的要求，然而事實上，我國財政支農比重不僅明顯偏低，而且提升速度緩慢，財政支農政策與其實際執行力度嚴重偏頗。
기우아국성향거민소비차거불단확대적사실，운용지구수입가설이론측산료농촌거민지구성수입화잠시성수입，병재차기출상，장지구성수입여농촌거민소비총액진행회귀분석이형량기대농촌거민소비적변제효응，병취기증가량적부치위소비자보첩등치대농촌거민진행직접보첩，이차모의농업보첩대축소성향소비차거적실제효용。연구표명，농업보첩불부능구현저성영향농촌거민적소비결구，가속농촌거민종생존형소비향발전형소비적과도，이차능구유효제고농촌거민소비수평，대축소성향소비차거발휘중요작용。동시，모의분석표명，현계단아국이경구비농업보첩전향적경제배경，병차무론시국내생산총치환시농업생산총치도능구만족농업보첩대재정지출적요구，연이사실상，아국재정지농비중불부명현편저，이차제승속도완만，재정지농정책여기실제집행력도엄중편파。
Based on the expanding gap between urban and rural residents＇ consumption, this paper estimated rural residents＇ persistent income and temporary income by using the permanent income hypothesis theory, and re- gressed persistent income with the total consumption of rural residents, aiming to measure marginal effect of ruralresidents＇ persistent income to consumption and to consider the part of the increase as consumer subsidy equiva- lents for rural residents~ direct subsidy, and then simulated the effect of agricultural subsidies to urban-rural con- sumption gap. The results of the study show that agricultural subsidies not only can significantly impact the con- sumption structure of rural residents and accelerate the transition of rural residents from the survival of consump- tion to the development of consumer, but also can effectively improve the level of consumption of rural residents, playing an important role in narrowing the urban-rural consumption gap. Meanwhile, the simulation analysis shows that China at this stage is able to steer the economic environment of the agricultural subsidies, at the same time, whether GDP or agricultural GDP all can meet the demand of the fiscal expenditure of agricultural subsidies, but in fact, the proportion of spending on agriculture in China not only is obviously low, but also the speed of its improvement is slow. And the financial support for agriculture policy and its enforcement is seriously biased.
