CAJ | 학술논문

作为我国重要的能源原材料基地，中部地区发展低碳经济潜力巨大。鉴于中部6省发展的基础、环境、面临的主要问题等均不相同，在综合考虑各省低碳经济发展趋势及相关政策、规划、战略部署的基础上，利用情景分析法系统分析了基准情景、节能情景和低碳情景下的中部各省低碳经济发展潜力，并针对中部地区低碳经济发展潜力提出了相应的建议。分析结果表明：在低碳情景下，中部地区2020年单位国内生产总值（GDP）CO2排放比2005年下降56．72％，远远超过了国家制定的2020年单位国内生产总值（GDP）C02排放比2005年下降40％～45％的目标；到2030年，碳排放总量为337312．03吨，仅为2010年的1．26倍。低碳情景是推进节能减排和发展方式转型、实现经济发展与资源环境保护双赢最有力的推手。
작위아국중요적능원원재료기지，중부지구발전저탄경제잠력거대。감우중부6성발전적기출、배경、면림적주요문제등균불상동，재종합고필각성저탄경제발전추세급상관정책、규화、전략부서적기출상，이용정경분석법계통분석료기준정경、절능정경화저탄정경하적중부각성저탄경제발전잠력，병침대중부지구저탄경제발전잠력제출료상응적건의。분석결과표명：재저탄정경하，중부지구2020년단위국내생산총치（GDP）CO2배방비2005년하강56．72％，원원초과료국가제정적2020년단위국내생산총치（GDP）C02배방비2005년하강40％～45％적목표；도2030년，탄배방총량위337312．03둔，부위2010년적1．26배。저탄정경시추진절능감배화발전방식전형、실현경제발전여자원배경보호쌍영최유력적추수。
As an important base of raw materials of energy in China, central China has great potential to devel- op low-carbon economy. Due to the difference of foundation, environment and main problems of the six provinces in this area, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy development potential of central China under Business As Usual Scenario, Energy Saving Scenario and Low-Carbon Scenario by Scenario Analysis, which is based on the low-carbon economy development trend and related policy, planning and strategy, and put forward corresponding proposal on the basis of the low-carbon economy development potential of central China. The analysis results show that under Low-Carbon Scenario, the carbon consumption of central China relative to gross domestic product （GDP） will fall by 56.72%, which is far more than the national standard （40～45%） ; compared with 2010, the total carbon emissions increase by 26% in 2030, which is just 337,312.03tons of carbon. Low-carbon Scenario is the most appropriate and realistic way to promote the conservation of energy, the reduction of emission and the transformation of development mode under the rapid development of economy.