CAJ | 학술논문

本文主要探讨了经济结构、经济冲击和政治偏好等因素在新兴市场国家汇率制度选择过程中所起到作用。研究结果表明：经济结构和政治偏好对的汇率制度选择影响显著，而经济冲击的影响则相对不明显。这些特点与理论分析中对“短视决策者”的描述相符。借鉴新兴市场国家的历史经验并结合我国当前实际情况，人民币汇率制度应继续保持适度弹性，并且随着我国经济政治环境的变化而适时做出调整。
본문주요탐토료경제결구、경제충격화정치편호등인소재신흥시장국가회솔제도선택과정중소기도작용。연구결과표명：경제결구화정치편호대적회솔제도선택영향현저，이경제충격적영향칙상대불명현。저사특점여이론분석중대“단시결책자”적묘술상부。차감신흥시장국가적역사경험병결합아국당전실제정황，인민폐회솔제도응계속보지괄도탄성，병차수착아국경제정치배경적변화이괄시주출조정。
This paper investigates the effect of economic structure, economic shock and political preference on choice of exchange rate regimes in emerging market countries. The research results indicate that economic structure and politi- cal preference have a significant effect on the choice while the effect of econom- ic shock is not obvious. The findings conform to the description of the ＂short-sighted decision makers＂ in theoretical analyses. In view of the experi- ence from emerging market countries and the current situation in China, the RMB exchange rate regime should remain flexible and be ready to adapt to the changing economic and political environment.