CAJ | 학술논문

基于可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型，从行业层面前瞻性对上述经济效应进行模拟分析，结果表明，美国政府对我国涉案光伏产品的“双反”措施能促使美国本土光伏企业产量、收入和全行业的就业人数增加，但美国消费者的福利损失要大于光伏企业的获利；“双反”措施导致我国涉案光伏产品对美国的出口价格上涨、出口量减少，由于美国市场对光伏产品的刚性需求，我国涉案企业的出口收入不降反增；美国反补贴措施的产业救济效果以及对我国涉案企业的影响较弱，相对而言，反倾销税的经济影响较大。基于研究结论，本文最后为我国光伏企业应对贸易摩擦提出一些参考性建议。
기우가계산국부균형COMPAS모형，종행업층면전첨성대상술경제효응진행모의분석，결과표명，미국정부대아국섭안광복산품적“쌍반”조시능촉사미국본토광복기업산량、수입화전행업적취업인수증가，단미국소비자적복리손실요대우광복기업적획리；“쌍반”조시도치아국섭안광복산품대미국적출구개격상창、출구량감소，유우미국시장대광복산품적강성수구，아국섭안기업적출구수입불강반증；미국반보첩조시적산업구제효과이급대아국섭안기업적영향교약，상대이언，반경소세적경제영향교대。기우연구결론，본문최후위아국광복기업응대무역마찰제출일사삼고성건의。
Based on partial equilibrium COMPAS model, this paper simulates above economic effects, the results show that, double-anti-dumping measures taken by the United States government against Chinese PV products can make the output, the income and the employment of US＇s PV industry increasing, but the welfare losses of US＇s consumers are greater than the profits of PV industry. The double-anti-dumping measures will lead to a rise in export price and a fall in export volume of Chinese PV products, due to the rampant demand for PV products from US market, the income of Chinese PV firms will increase. The industry remedy effect and the influence on Chinese PV firms from US＇s countervailing will be weak, by contrast the economic impact of anti-dumping duties will be relatively greater. At the end, this paper presents some policy recommendations for Chinese PV companies based on research findings.