统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2014年
4期
29~38
,共null页
政府债务 经济增长 非线性 系统GMM
政府債務 經濟增長 非線性 繫統GMM
정부채무 경제증장 비선성 계통GMM
Public＇ Debt ; Economic Growth; Nonlinear; System GMM
本文基于61个国家1980-2009年的面板数据,采用系统GMM方法对政府债务与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验,较好地克服了变量内生性问题.研究表明,政府债务与经济增长之间存在着非线性（倒U型）关系,这种关系普遍存在于发达国家和发展中国家;证明了债务阈值的存在性,且两组国家中政府债务阈值的大小存在差异.但是,政府债务阈值并不具有唯一性和确定性,它随利率、通货膨胀、经常账户和金融发展的变化而显示出动态性特征,且上述变量对两组国家的影响存在显著的区别.
本文基于61箇國傢1980-2009年的麵闆數據,採用繫統GMM方法對政府債務與經濟增長之間的非線性關繫進行瞭實證檢驗,較好地剋服瞭變量內生性問題.研究錶明,政府債務與經濟增長之間存在著非線性（倒U型）關繫,這種關繫普遍存在于髮達國傢和髮展中國傢;證明瞭債務閾值的存在性,且兩組國傢中政府債務閾值的大小存在差異.但是,政府債務閾值併不具有唯一性和確定性,它隨利率、通貨膨脹、經常賬戶和金融髮展的變化而顯示齣動態性特徵,且上述變量對兩組國傢的影響存在顯著的區彆.
본문기우61개국가1980-2009년적면판수거,채용계통GMM방법대정부채무여경제증장지간적비선성관계진행료실증검험,교호지극복료변량내생성문제.연구표명,정부채무여경제증장지간존재착비선성（도U형）관계,저충관계보편존재우발체국가화발전중국가;증명료채무역치적존재성,차량조국가중정부채무역치적대소존재차이.단시,정부채무역치병불구유유일성화학정성,타수리솔、통화팽창、경상장호화금융발전적변화이현시출동태성특정,차상술변량대량조국가적영향존재현저적구별.
This paper explores the nonlinear relationship between government debt and economic growth. The analysis based on panel data from 61 countries on 1980 -2009. The System GMM was used in the study to deal with the reverse causality and endogeneity. Research shows there exist nonlinear （an inverted U-shaped pattern） relationship between government debt and economic growth, this relationship exists in both developed and developing countries; proved the existence of the debt threshold, and the difference of two groups of countries in government debt threshold value. However, government debt threshold does not have uniqueness and determinacy, which changes with the interest rate, inflation, the current account and financial development; and thus, it shows the dynamic characteristic, and these variable effects on the two groups of countries have significant difference.
