CAJ | 학술논문

事前模拟经济对财政政策变化的反应是检验政策效果的重要手段.本文通过对国外经典模型的改进,并引入系统财政规则,构建更符合中国现实的财政政策DSGE模型.在有效税率估算校准与参数贝叶斯估计的基础上,给出了政策模拟检验应用示例.研究结果显示,税率冲击效应模拟是税制改革实验的有效方法,资本税率可作为经济结构调整的政策工具,当前增加政府支出对经济增长的拉动作用较弱.
사전모의경제대재정정책변화적반응시검험정책효과적중요수단.본문통과대국외경전모형적개진,병인입계통재정규칙,구건경부합중국현실적재정정책DSGE모형.재유효세솔고산교준여삼수패협사고계적기출상,급출료정책모의검험응용시례.연구결과현시,세솔충격효응모의시세제개혁실험적유효방법,자본세솔가작위경제결구조정적정책공구,당전증가정부지출대경제증장적랍동작용교약.
Simulation of the economic response to changes in fiscal policy in advance is an important technique to examine the effects of fiscal policy. This paper improved foreign classic model, introduced the system fiscal rules and built fiscal policy DSGE models. Basing on the effective tax rate estimation and parameters bayesian estimation, it gave the example of simulation and test for fiscal policy, which found the conclusions that simulation the shocks of tax rate was the effect way of the tax reform, capital tax rate was an effect tool of economic structure adjustment, while increasing the government expenditures was weak for driving economics grow. It could also provide reference for DSGE model research in China.