CAJ | 학술논문

随着环境保护及可持续发展意识的逐渐增强。节能减排越来越受到国家的重视。将经济与环境的相对重要性纳入全要素能源效率分析中。通过改进原有的DEA模型。并根据不同可持续发展目标下经济与环境的相对重要性也有所不同的思路．通过偏好锥的设定构造不同发展目标下的全要素能源效率动态评价模型。并以中国2011年的实际数据进行实证分析．根据实现的难易程度分为阶段性可持续发展目标改进和统一可持续发展目标两种情况，分析我国不同情景下的节能潜力。结果表明．中国2011年各省的发展水平可以分为5个层次。尽管中西部地区省份的平均能源效率为0．806，明显低于东部地区的0．865。但其处于可持续发展较差阶段的省份比例仅为6．7％，远低于东部地区的50％。因此。建议中西部地区在未来的发展过程中。努力引进先进清洁技术．避免吸收东部地区淘汰的发展方式。在阶段性改善目标下。北京、天津、广东、海南和青海都处于效率最优状态，而河北、四川和山西三省的所需减排量则位居前位。在未来发展过程中建议给予针对性帮助，重点化扶持。中国整体的能源节约量随着可持续发展要求的加强而增加．阶段性改进情况下要比传统方法增加5．1％的能源减排量。在统一可持续发展目标的情况下，中国的整体能源减排量呈现先下降再上升的趋势。在考虑实现程度上。应选取发展水平为0．059的阶段作为标准制定相应的政策。
수착배경보호급가지속발전의식적축점증강。절능감배월래월수도국가적중시。장경제여배경적상대중요성납입전요소능원효솔분석중。통과개진원유적DEA모형。병근거불동가지속발전목표하경제여배경적상대중요성야유소불동적사로．통과편호추적설정구조불동발전목표하적전요소능원효솔동태평개모형。병이중국2011년적실제수거진행실증분석．근거실현적난역정도분위계단성가지속발전목표개진화통일가지속발전목표량충정황，분석아국불동정경하적절능잠력。결과표명．중국2011년각성적발전수평가이분위5개층차。진관중서부지구성빈적평균능원효솔위0．806，명현저우동부지구적0．865。단기처우가지속발전교차계단적성빈비례부위6．7％，원저우동부지구적50％。인차。건의중서부지구재미래적발전과정중。노력인진선진청길기술．피면흡수동부지구도태적발전방식。재계단성개선목표하。북경、천진、엄동、해남화청해도처우효솔최우상태，이하북、사천화산서삼성적소수감배량칙위거전위。재미래발전과정중건의급여침대성방조，중점화부지。중국정체적능원절약량수착가지속발전요구적가강이증가．계단성개진정황하요비전통방법증가5．1％적능원감배량。재통일가지속발전목표적정황하，중국적정체능원감배량정현선하강재상승적추세。재고필실현정도상。응선취발전수평위0．059적계단작위표준제정상응적정책。
As the strengthening of consciousness of environmental protection and sustainable development gradually, energy-saving and emission reduction is attracting more and more attention. Energy-saving potential can be analyzed by DEA method in the process of computing total factor energy efficiency simultaneously. The relative importance of economy and environment should be brought into the energy efficiency evaluation. Based on the idea that the relative importance of economy and environment is determined by the level of sustainable development, the dynamic energy efficiency model on the level of sustainable development is constructed by adding preference restrain cone into DEA method. The dynamic model is used to calculate the energy-saving potential of China in two scenarios. The first is to improve sustainable development target periodically, and the second is to improve the target unitedly. The outcomes demonstrate that the sustainable development level of provinces in China can be divided into five stages. The proportion of provinces in poor stage of sustainable development in Central and Western China is only 6.7% , which is far lower than the proportion of 50% in Eastern China, although the average energy efficiency level in Central and Western China is 0. 806, lower than the level of 0. 865 in Eastern China obviously, which means the central and western China stould try to introduce the advanced technologies directly in the future development instead of just to hauling the obsolete way of eastern China. In the first scenario, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Hainan and Qinghai are the best practice provinces, while Hebei, Sichuan and Shanxi have the largest energy-saving potential, implying that government needs to help them by making special policies and particular efforts. Besides, the amount of energy-saving of China in the first scenario is 5.1% higher than the normal level and the amount of energy-saving is increasing with the rising of sustainable development level. In the second scenario, energy-saving potential in China will decrease first and then increase. Furthermore, considering the difficulties of achieving different energy-saving goals, 0. 059 is suggested as the best level to establish corresponding development policies.