CAJ | 학술논문

运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析的思想，结合协调发展理论提出了基于VAR和VEC模型的交通经济数据的分析方法，据此对河北省1990-2009年交通运输与经济统计数据进行了实证分析。结果表明：经济增长对交通运输业的引致需求作用不如交通运输业对经济增长推动作用明显，但是经济增长与交通运输业的建设规模、合理布局、运输能力．具有长期均衡关系；经济增长速度受到冲击后会在中期对交通运输业具有正的影响，短期影响并不显著。
운용맥충향응분석화방차분해분석적사상，결합협조발전이론제출료기우VAR화VEC모형적교통경제수거적분석방법，거차대하북성1990-2009년교통운수여경제통계수거진행료실증분석。결과표명：경제증장대교통운수업적인치수구작용불여교통운수업대경제증장추동작용명현，단시경제증장여교통운수업적건설규모、합리포국、운수능력．구유장기균형관계；경제증장속도수도충격후회재중기대교통운수업구유정적영향，단기영향병불현저。
Using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, this paper puts forwards the economic data analysis method based on the model of VAR and VEC. Hence, the author carry out the empirical analysis on the transportation and economic statistical data of Hebei province in 1990-2009. The results show that the need effect of economic growth on the transport is less obvious than the transportation role in promoting economic growth. However, there is balance in long period existing in the area of construction scale, reasonable layout and transportation power of the economics development and transportation. In the medium term and after impacted, the growth rate of economy will have positive effect on the transportation, but not obviously in the short period.