CAJ | 학술논문

目前，人口大规模跨地区流动是我国大城市人口膨胀的主要推动因素。利用城市市辖区年末移动电话用户数估计中国地级以上城市的人口规模，结果表明市辖区人口规模在200万人以上的城市有62个；以北京奥运会、上海世博会和广州亚运会为例分析非市场手段调控人口规模的效果及其成本，结果表明以地方政府行政手段为主的城市人口规模调控短期内效果明显，但一旦放松调控，城市人口在短期内即迅速回复到其应有的状态；对日本的城市人口空间分布和增长演进进行分析，结果表明市场经济条件下区域经济发展的不平衡是导致人口在不同地区和城市流动的关键因素；对广东省各地级市人口演变进行估计分析，结果表明人口由珠三角核心城市流向外围城市主要是伴随着产业转移的人口回流。在市场经济框架下，不能主要以行政手段控制大城市人口增长，而应主要采用市场手段来调控城市人口结构，如产业升级与转移。
목전，인구대규모과지구류동시아국대성시인구팽창적주요추동인소。이용성시시할구년말이동전화용호수고계중국지급이상성시적인구규모，결과표명시할구인구규모재200만인이상적성시유62개；이북경오운회、상해세박회화엄주아운회위례분석비시장수단조공인구규모적효과급기성본，결과표명이지방정부행정수단위주적성시인구규모조공단기내효과명현，단일단방송조공，성시인구재단기내즉신속회복도기응유적상태；대일본적성시인구공간분포화증장연진진행분석，결과표명시장경제조건하구역경제발전적불평형시도치인구재불동지구화성시류동적관건인소；대광동성각지급시인구연변진행고계분석，결과표명인구유주삼각핵심성시류향외위성시주요시반수착산업전이적인구회류。재시장경제광가하，불능주요이행정수단공제대성시인구증장，이응주요채용시장수단래조공성시인구결구，여산업승급여전이。
Under the situation of almost negative growth of registered household population, large scale trans-regional flow of Chinese population is the main driving factor of population expansion in large cities. Firstly, we use some rigid data such as the total number of urban mobile phone users at the end of a year to estimate the size of the population of the major cities above prefecture-level cities in China, the results show that there are sixty-two cities with over two million people in China. Secondly, we analyze the effect and the cost of population regulation by non-market means of population control by taking example of Beijing Olympic Games, Shanghai World Expo and Guangzhou Asian Games, the results indicate that the city population size regulation mainly by local governmental administrative means has significant effect in short-term, but once the regulation is easing, the city population rapidly returns to its original state in short-term. Thirdly, we explore the spatial distribution and growth evolution of Japanese urban population, the results reveal that the imbalance of regional economic development is the key factor to lead to the floating of the population among different cities and different regions. Finally, we conduct the estimation and analysis of the population evolution in the prefecture-level cities of Guangdong Province, the results demonstrate that population flowing from the core cities at Pearl River Delta to their surrounding cities is mainly the back-flow with the industrial transfer. Under market economy framework, administrative means should not be mainly used to regulate population growth in big cities, however, market-oriented means such as industrial upgrading and transfer should be used to control urban population structure.