西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
West Forum
2014年
2期
65~75
,共null页
地方政府债务 债务风险 债务结构 债务隐性化 财政体制 预算软约束 地方财政收入 财政管理体制 政绩考核机制 债务风险预警机制
地方政府債務 債務風險 債務結構 債務隱性化 財政體製 預算軟約束 地方財政收入 財政管理體製 政績攷覈機製 債務風險預警機製
지방정부채무 채무풍험 채무결구 채무은성화 재정체제 예산연약속 지방재정수입 재정관리체제 정적고핵궤제 채무풍험예경궤제
local governmental debt;debt risk;debt structure;debt implicitness;financial system;budget soft-constraint;local financial revenue;financial management system;political performance evaluation mechanism;early-warning mechanism for debt risk
当前，我国地方债务的规模已十分庞大，并呈现不断扩张的趋势，不但偿债压力大、债务结构不合理，而且债务隐性化趋势明显、管理混乱，存在较大的风险隐患。我国地方债务的累积及其风险的扩张，将阻碍经济发展方式的转变，降低经济发展质量，对私人投资产生“挤出效应”，使经济保持较高的通胀率，引发高房价问题，不利于收入分配的改革，并恶化政府和金融体系的信用。地方债务风险的成因是多元的，包括财政体制、预算软约束、地方财政收入增长困难、投资拉动型的经济增长方式、政绩考核机制等。控制和化解地方债务风险，在短期可通过资产证券化、引进民间资本和出售地方国有资产方式快速筹集偿债资金以尽快偿债；在长期则必须进行实质性改革，如构建市场化的地方政府融资机制、转变政府职能、改革分税体制、加强中央政府对地方政府举债管理约束、建立债务风险预警机制等。
噹前，我國地方債務的規模已十分龐大，併呈現不斷擴張的趨勢，不但償債壓力大、債務結構不閤理，而且債務隱性化趨勢明顯、管理混亂，存在較大的風險隱患。我國地方債務的纍積及其風險的擴張，將阻礙經濟髮展方式的轉變，降低經濟髮展質量，對私人投資產生“擠齣效應”，使經濟保持較高的通脹率，引髮高房價問題，不利于收入分配的改革，併噁化政府和金融體繫的信用。地方債務風險的成因是多元的，包括財政體製、預算軟約束、地方財政收入增長睏難、投資拉動型的經濟增長方式、政績攷覈機製等。控製和化解地方債務風險，在短期可通過資產證券化、引進民間資本和齣售地方國有資產方式快速籌集償債資金以儘快償債；在長期則必鬚進行實質性改革，如構建市場化的地方政府融資機製、轉變政府職能、改革分稅體製、加彊中央政府對地方政府舉債管理約束、建立債務風險預警機製等。
당전，아국지방채무적규모이십분방대，병정현불단확장적추세，불단상채압력대、채무결구불합리，이차채무은성화추세명현、관리혼란，존재교대적풍험은환。아국지방채무적루적급기풍험적확장，장조애경제발전방식적전변，강저경제발전질량，대사인투자산생“제출효응”，사경제보지교고적통창솔，인발고방개문제，불리우수입분배적개혁，병악화정부화금융체계적신용。지방채무풍험적성인시다원적，포괄재정체제、예산연약속、지방재정수입증장곤난、투자랍동형적경제증장방식、정적고핵궤제등。공제화화해지방채무풍험，재단기가통과자산증권화、인진민간자본화출수지방국유자산방식쾌속주집상채자금이진쾌상채；재장기칙필수진행실질성개혁，여구건시장화적지방정부융자궤제、전변정부직능、개혁분세체제、가강중앙정부대지방정부거채관리약속、건립채무풍험예경궤제등。
At present, China ’ s local governmental debt scale is huge, demonstrates the trend of continuously expanding, and has bigger potential risk such as debt payback pressure, unreasonable debt structure, obvious debt implicitness trend and disordered management. The accumulation and risk expansion of China’ s local governmental debt will head off the economic development pattern transition, reduce economic development quality, produce“squeezing out effect” on private investment, make the economy hold higher inflation rate, trigger higher housing price, be harmful to the reform of income distribution and deteriorate the credit of governments and financial system. The causes for local governmental debt are diversified, including financial system, budget soft-constraint, difficult local government finance increase, investment-driven-style economic growth mode, local carders’ political performance evaluation mechanism and so on. Local governmental debt risk can be controlled and solved by rapidly raising the money mechanism for debt payback in short-term such as assets securitization, introduction to private investment and selling state-owned assets, by necessarily implementing practical reform in long-term such as building market-oriented local governmental financing mechanism, changing governmental duty, reforming system of tax distribution, enhancing the management of central government on local governmental debt, building early-warning system for debt risk and so on.
