西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
West Forum
2014年
3期
8~14
,共null页
劳动力供给 劳动力需求 用工荒 刘易斯拐点效应 劳动参与率 劳动力迁移 农村剩余劳动力转移 劳动力市场配置机制 产业转型升级 技术进步
勞動力供給 勞動力需求 用工荒 劉易斯枴點效應 勞動參與率 勞動力遷移 農村剩餘勞動力轉移 勞動力市場配置機製 產業轉型升級 技術進步
노동력공급 노동력수구 용공황 류역사괴점효응 노동삼여솔 노동력천이 농촌잉여노동력전이 노동력시장배치궤제 산업전형승급 기술진보
labor supply; labor demand; labor shortage; Lewis turning point effect; working participation rate;labor migration; rural surplus labor migration; labor market resources allocation mechanism; industrial restructureand upgrading; technical progress
未来5—10年重庆劳动力资源呈现“存量保持高位、增量负增长、构成老化加剧”的格局，但在产业升级、劳动迁移的背景下，相对于劳动力需求劳动力供给是充足的。我国逐步成熟的劳动力市场配置机制能有效促进劳动力供需的基本平衡，不宜夸大当前及未来的“用工荒”形势与“刘易斯拐点效应”的负面影响，它只是各地经济快速扩张和同质化竞争过程中的“成长痛”，与当前区域劳动力供给变化并无因果关系。面对普工的“用工荒”，不应简单地通过引入外来的普通劳动力来化解，而应通过技术进步、产业转型升级以及提高存量劳动力资源利用率（劳动参与率）予以应对；“刘易斯拐点”的来临，既是推动经济发展方式转型的外在动力，也是普通劳动者和低收入家庭提高生活水平的大好机会。
未來5—10年重慶勞動力資源呈現“存量保持高位、增量負增長、構成老化加劇”的格跼，但在產業升級、勞動遷移的揹景下，相對于勞動力需求勞動力供給是充足的。我國逐步成熟的勞動力市場配置機製能有效促進勞動力供需的基本平衡，不宜誇大噹前及未來的“用工荒”形勢與“劉易斯枴點效應”的負麵影響，它隻是各地經濟快速擴張和同質化競爭過程中的“成長痛”，與噹前區域勞動力供給變化併無因果關繫。麵對普工的“用工荒”，不應簡單地通過引入外來的普通勞動力來化解，而應通過技術進步、產業轉型升級以及提高存量勞動力資源利用率（勞動參與率）予以應對；“劉易斯枴點”的來臨，既是推動經濟髮展方式轉型的外在動力，也是普通勞動者和低收入傢庭提高生活水平的大好機會。
미래5—10년중경노동력자원정현“존량보지고위、증량부증장、구성노화가극”적격국，단재산업승급、노동천이적배경하，상대우노동력수구노동력공급시충족적。아국축보성숙적노동력시장배치궤제능유효촉진노동력공수적기본평형，불의과대당전급미래적“용공황”형세여“류역사괴점효응”적부면영향，타지시각지경제쾌속확장화동질화경쟁과정중적“성장통”，여당전구역노동력공급변화병무인과관계。면대보공적“용공황”，불응간단지통과인입외래적보통노동력래화해，이응통과기술진보、산업전형승급이급제고존량노동력자원이용솔（노동삼여솔）여이응대；“류역사괴점”적래림，기시추동경제발전방식전형적외재동력，야시보통노동자화저수입가정제고생활수평적대호궤회。
Labor-resources will keep in a new condition of high quantity, negative growth in incremental quantity and intensifying aging structure in the coming 5--10 years, under the background of industry upgrading and labor migration, however, the labor supply is sufficient by comparing with labor demand. China＇ s gradual mature labor market allocation mechanism can effectively boost the basic balance between the supply and the demand of labor force, so the situation of labor shortage and the negative effect of Lewis turning point should not be exaggerated at present and in the future, therefore, it is only the ＂growth pain＂ in the process of rapid expansion of the economy and homogeneity competition in all parts of China and there is no causality in current regional labor supply change. Facing the labor shortage of the workers with common skills, the problem should not be solved by simply introducing the workers with common skills from other places but should be solved by technical progress, industrial restructure and upgrading and high stock labor resources exploitation rate （working participation rate） , the coming of Lewis turning point is both the external motive to boost the restructure of economic development mode and the great opportunity of common workers and the family with low income to raise their living level.
