CAJ | 학술논문

国际金融危机后，发达国家纷纷提出电信基础设施刺激计划，试图借力新一轮信息技术革命重塑国家竞争优势。然而，电信基础设施与经济增长的因果关系在学术界一直存有争议。本文利用1990--2010年省级面板数据实证考察了电信基础设施对经济增长的影响。为了克服电信基础设施可能存在的内生性问题，本文利用中国电信改革所引起的各省电信市场结构的外生变化作为工具变量。实证分析的结果表明，在电信行业发展初期（1990--1999年），移动电话和固定电话基础设施的发展共同促进了经济增长；进入2000年以后，虽然移动电话基础设施对经济增长仍然具有显著的正向影响，但是对经济增长的贡献在逐渐递减，而固定电话基础设施对经济增长已经呈现出负向影响，说明由于用户萎缩固定电话基础设施已经出现闲置征兆。本文研究结果对于重新思考我国电信基础设施的发展战略具有重要的政策含义。
국제금융위궤후，발체국가분분제출전신기출설시자격계화，시도차력신일륜신식기술혁명중소국가경쟁우세。연이，전신기출설시여경제증장적인과관계재학술계일직존유쟁의。본문이용1990--2010년성급면판수거실증고찰료전신기출설시대경제증장적영향。위료극복전신기출설시가능존재적내생성문제，본문이용중국전신개혁소인기적각성전신시장결구적외생변화작위공구변량。실증분석적결과표명，재전신행업발전초기（1990--1999년），이동전화화고정전화기출설시적발전공동촉진료경제증장；진입2000년이후，수연이동전화기출설시대경제증장잉연구유현저적정향영향，단시대경제증장적공헌재축점체감，이고정전화기출설시대경제증장이경정현출부향영향，설명유우용호위축고정전화기출설시이경출현한치정조。본문연구결과대우중신사고아국전신기출설시적발전전략구유중요적정책함의。
In response to the financial crisis, many developed countries provided the telecommunications infrastructure stimulus plan to seize the opportunity of the next information revolution and improve the national competitiveness since 2008. Using the exogenous variables of telecommunications reform to oyercome the endogeneity between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth, we separately examined fixed and mobile telephony infrastructure on economic growth effect during the different industrial development period. We find that mobile phone and fixed phone infrastructure complementarily promote economic growth in the early build out period （1990--1999）. Telecommunications industry has quickly entered into the more mature period since 2000. We find that mobile services contribute much more to growth but that the effect diminishes over time as the markets for these services become more mature. The fixed telephone infrastructure is significantly negatively correlated with economic growth, which shows that this infrastructure has been idle with the decrease of the fixed telephone subscribers. Our results have important policy implications for rethinking the investment strategy of telecommunications infrastructure.