系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2014年
5期
1100~1109
,共null页
新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线 二元开放经济 农村劳动力转移
新凱恩斯菲利普斯麯線 二元開放經濟 農村勞動力轉移
신개은사비리보사곡선 이원개방경제 농촌노동력전이
new Keynesian Phillips curve; open dual economy; transfer of rural labor force
中国是个开放经济国家，同时又具有典型的二元经济结构，这两个经济特征可能从以下三方面影响中国的通货膨胀：首先，进口中间品的价格可能影响厂商的生产成本；其次，农产品价格尚未放开（多为政府指导定价特征）可能使得食品定价方式与非食品定价方式不同；再次，农村剩余劳动力转移将影响城镇劳动力市场的均衡，进而影响厂商的生产成本．与以往有关中国通货膨胀的研究文献不同，本文从微观主体的动态最优决策出发，构建了囊括上述三方面影响的中国新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线理论模型，并引入了货币政策冲击的影响．实证结果表明，非食品部门中前瞻型企业占主导，约占2／3，非食品价格调整时期约为三个季度；包含二元经济和开放经济因素的实际边际成本以及农村剩余劳动力转移对通货膨胀有显著影响，但用利率度量的货币政策直接供给效应在统计上不显著．
中國是箇開放經濟國傢，同時又具有典型的二元經濟結構，這兩箇經濟特徵可能從以下三方麵影響中國的通貨膨脹：首先，進口中間品的價格可能影響廠商的生產成本；其次，農產品價格尚未放開（多為政府指導定價特徵）可能使得食品定價方式與非食品定價方式不同；再次，農村剩餘勞動力轉移將影響城鎮勞動力市場的均衡，進而影響廠商的生產成本．與以往有關中國通貨膨脹的研究文獻不同，本文從微觀主體的動態最優決策齣髮，構建瞭囊括上述三方麵影響的中國新凱恩斯菲利普斯麯線理論模型，併引入瞭貨幣政策遲擊的影響．實證結果錶明，非食品部門中前瞻型企業佔主導，約佔2／3，非食品價格調整時期約為三箇季度；包含二元經濟和開放經濟因素的實際邊際成本以及農村剩餘勞動力轉移對通貨膨脹有顯著影響，但用利率度量的貨幣政策直接供給效應在統計上不顯著．
중국시개개방경제국가，동시우구유전형적이원경제결구，저량개경제특정가능종이하삼방면영향중국적통화팽창：수선，진구중간품적개격가능영향엄상적생산성본；기차，농산품개격상미방개（다위정부지도정개특정）가능사득식품정개방식여비식품정개방식불동；재차，농촌잉여노동력전이장영향성진노동력시장적균형，진이영향엄상적생산성본．여이왕유관중국통화팽창적연구문헌불동，본문종미관주체적동태최우결책출발，구건료낭괄상술삼방면영향적중국신개은사비리보사곡선이론모형，병인입료화폐정책충격적영향．실증결과표명，비식품부문중전첨형기업점주도，약점2／3，비식품개격조정시기약위삼개계도；포함이원경제화개방경제인소적실제변제성본이급농촌잉여노동력전이대통화팽창유현저영향，단용리솔도량적화폐정책직접공급효응재통계상불현저．
As an open economy, China also has a typical dual economy. These two economic characteristics may affect China＇s inflation in the following three aspects： First, the prices of imported intermediate goods might influence firms＇ costs. Second, the modes of pricing for food and non-food might be of a great difference as a result of the conduct of most agricultural product prices by government （that is, the market of agricultural products has not been released）. Third, the transfer of rural labor force may change the urban labor market balance, and then affect firms＇ costs. In contrast to previous work, this paper models China＇s inflation using new Keynesian Phillips curve considering the above three factors and monetary policy shocks. Empirical results show that forward-looking behavior is predominant （accounting for about 2/3 of firms） in non-food sector, and that non-food prices are fixed for about three quarters on average. Real marginal costs including dual economy and open economy elements have a significant impact on inflation dynamics. The transfer of rural labor force also has a significant effect on inflation, but the directly supply-side effect of monetary policy （measured by interest rate） on inflation is insignificant.
