CAJ | 학술논문

针对异质群体参与的施工导流方案风险型多属性决策问题，分析导流方案决策主体面临不同属性时所对应的偏好尺度和评价效用的差异性，引入群体协商集结理论，提出基于可能度矩阵表征的导流方案群决策策略．通过对各属性下导流方案决策主体的非一致性、模糊性意见进行协商集结，计算属性权重的协商区间．基于蒙特卡罗模拟仿真技术，计算随机权重向量下导流方案两两间的优胜概率，得到描述导流方案优胜程度的模糊互补判断矩阵，据此进行备选方案的优先排序，并给出了排序的可信度．实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性．研究为多属性群决策视角下导流方案的优选提供了理论基础和决策支持．
침대이질군체삼여적시공도류방안풍험형다속성결책문제，분석도류방안결책주체면림불동속성시소대응적편호척도화평개효용적차이성，인입군체협상집결이론，제출기우가능도구진표정적도류방안군결책책략．통과대각속성하도류방안결책주체적비일치성、모호성의견진행협상집결，계산속성권중적협상구간．기우몽특잡라모의방진기술，계산수궤권중향량하도류방안량량간적우성개솔，득도묘술도류방안우성정도적모호호보판단구진，거차진행비선방안적우선배서，병급출료배서적가신도．실례험증료해방법적가행성화유효성．연구위다속성군결책시각하도류방안적우선제공료이론기출화결책지지．
In allusion to risky multi-attribute decision of construction diversion schemes in which hetero- geneous group participate, analyzing the difference of preference scale and evaluation utility of diversion schemes decision-makers with respect to different attributes. Bringing in the theory of negotiation aggre- gation, diversion schemes group decision strategy characterized by possibility degree matrix was proposed. Through aggregating inconsistent and fuzzy opinions of diversion scheme decision-makers with respect to different attributes, the attributes weight bargaining range was figured up. Based on Monte Carlo sim- ulation technology, the prioritization probability between each alternative pair with respect to random weight vector was cMculated, obtaining the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix describing the degree of superior, and accordingly alternatives in priority order was arranged and the credibility of the ordering was analyzed. A case study is given to verify the feasibility and validity of the method. The study provides theory foundation and decision support for diversion schemes optimization in view of multi-attribute group decision-making.