系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2014年
5期
1352~1360
,共null页
水生态承载力 SD模型 情景分析 水资源开发利用率 水环境容量利用率 遗传投影寻踪 常州市
水生態承載力 SD模型 情景分析 水資源開髮利用率 水環境容量利用率 遺傳投影尋蹤 常州市
수생태승재력 SD모형 정경분석 수자원개발이용솔 수배경용량이용솔 유전투영심종 상주시
water ecological carrying capacity; system dynamics model; scenario analysis; water envi-ronmental capacity utilization rate; water resources utilization rate; genetic projection pursuit model;Changzhou city
提出了系统动力学和投影寻踪法的水生态承载力模拟和优选方法，以常州市为例进行实证研究．采用情景分析法，从节水和污染控制方面，设计了零方案，节水方案，污染控制低方案，污染控制中方案和污染控制高方案等5个情景方案．通过VensimDSS软件建立SD（systemdynamics）模型和模拟仿真平台，模拟了2020年常州市水生态承载力，得到5种情景方案的模拟结果．采用遗传投影寻踪法，对5种情景方案进行优选，推荐方案为污染控制高方案，在该方案下，2020年常州市可承载的人口数量为481万人，GDP总量可达到6094亿元，相应的水资源开发利用率为48．8％，最大水环境容量利用率为loo％，要达到以上水生态承载力目标，必须提高水资源利用效率，降低重点污染行业增长速度，增加污水治理投资金额，提高污水处理率等．研究结果为评估水生态承载力提供了理论依据，为研究区水生态环境保护和经济社会发展提供了决策参考．
提齣瞭繫統動力學和投影尋蹤法的水生態承載力模擬和優選方法，以常州市為例進行實證研究．採用情景分析法，從節水和汙染控製方麵，設計瞭零方案，節水方案，汙染控製低方案，汙染控製中方案和汙染控製高方案等5箇情景方案．通過VensimDSS軟件建立SD（systemdynamics）模型和模擬倣真平檯，模擬瞭2020年常州市水生態承載力，得到5種情景方案的模擬結果．採用遺傳投影尋蹤法，對5種情景方案進行優選，推薦方案為汙染控製高方案，在該方案下，2020年常州市可承載的人口數量為481萬人，GDP總量可達到6094億元，相應的水資源開髮利用率為48．8％，最大水環境容量利用率為loo％，要達到以上水生態承載力目標，必鬚提高水資源利用效率，降低重點汙染行業增長速度，增加汙水治理投資金額，提高汙水處理率等．研究結果為評估水生態承載力提供瞭理論依據，為研究區水生態環境保護和經濟社會髮展提供瞭決策參攷．
제출료계통동역학화투영심종법적수생태승재력모의화우선방법，이상주시위례진행실증연구．채용정경분석법，종절수화오염공제방면，설계료령방안，절수방안，오염공제저방안，오염공제중방안화오염공제고방안등5개정경방안．통과VensimDSS연건건립SD（systemdynamics）모형화모의방진평태，모의료2020년상주시수생태승재력，득도5충정경방안적모의결과．채용유전투영심종법，대5충정경방안진행우선，추천방안위오염공제고방안，재해방안하，2020년상주시가승재적인구수량위481만인，GDP총량가체도6094억원，상응적수자원개발이용솔위48．8％，최대수배경용량이용솔위loo％，요체도이상수생태승재력목표，필수제고수자원이용효솔，강저중점오염행업증장속도，증가오수치리투자금액，제고오수처리솔등．연구결과위평고수생태승재력제공료이론의거，위연구구수생태배경보호화경제사회발전제공료결책삼고．
Based on SD （system dynamics） model, a simulation and optimization method for water ecological carrying capacity was proposed, and the method was tested by its application in Changzhou city. The SD model was developed by Vensim DSS software. Using scenarios analysis, five scenario schemes including zero scheme, water saving scheme, low pollution control scheme, moderate pollution control scheme and high pollution control scheme were designed from the views of water saving and pollution control. The water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou city was simulated by the five schemes, and the optimized scenario was screened by the genetic projection pursuit method. Results showed that the high pollution control scheme was the recommended one. By the recommended scheme, Changzhou city could burden a population of 4.81 million and GDP of 609.4 billion RMB. The utilization rate of water environmental capacity is up to 100%, and the water resources utilization rate cannot exceed 48.8%. It is pointed out that to achieve these goals necessary measures must be taken, such as improving the water use efficiency, reducing the growth rate of seriously polluting industries, increasing the investment of sewage treatment and enhancing the sewage treatment ratios, and so on. This study could provide not only a method for the assessment of water ecological carrying capacity, but also a theoretical basis for coordinated development of environmental protection and economics.
