中国工业经济
中國工業經濟
중국공업경제
China Industrial Economy
2014年
5期
31~43
,共null页
政府规模 扩张偏向 福利效应 “大部制”改革
政府規模 擴張偏嚮 福利效應 “大部製”改革
정부규모 확장편향 복리효응 “대부제”개혁
government size; expansion deviation; welfare effects; huge ministry system reform
本文提出适度政府规模福利效应新假说，利用2000—2012年中国省际动态面板数据和系统广义矩估计（SYS—GMM）进行实证检验。结果发现：①适度政府规模有利于经济增长和社会福利增进，政府规模存在三种效应。当政府规模较小时．增长效应占主导，当政府规模较大时，挤出效应占主导，当政府规模适度时，福利效应占主导：②政府规模对社会福利呈“倒U型”影响。短期扩张有利于经济发展和社会福利提高．但长期膨胀则有损于经济效率和社会公平，中国适度政府规模在0．2左右：③政府规模对社会福利的影响作用大于政府干预作用，由于中国各省份发展条件和发展水平存在显著差异。要防止地方政府规模过分偏离0．2的适度水平而造成地方政府债务规模膨胀、过多挤占市场和宏观经济不稳定。本文为近年来中国各级政府规模的扩张偏向提出了警示与启示．
本文提齣適度政府規模福利效應新假說，利用2000—2012年中國省際動態麵闆數據和繫統廣義矩估計（SYS—GMM）進行實證檢驗。結果髮現：①適度政府規模有利于經濟增長和社會福利增進，政府規模存在三種效應。噹政府規模較小時．增長效應佔主導，噹政府規模較大時，擠齣效應佔主導，噹政府規模適度時，福利效應佔主導：②政府規模對社會福利呈“倒U型”影響。短期擴張有利于經濟髮展和社會福利提高．但長期膨脹則有損于經濟效率和社會公平，中國適度政府規模在0．2左右：③政府規模對社會福利的影響作用大于政府榦預作用，由于中國各省份髮展條件和髮展水平存在顯著差異。要防止地方政府規模過分偏離0．2的適度水平而造成地方政府債務規模膨脹、過多擠佔市場和宏觀經濟不穩定。本文為近年來中國各級政府規模的擴張偏嚮提齣瞭警示與啟示．
본문제출괄도정부규모복리효응신가설，이용2000—2012년중국성제동태면판수거화계통엄의구고계（SYS—GMM）진행실증검험。결과발현：①괄도정부규모유리우경제증장화사회복리증진，정부규모존재삼충효응。당정부규모교소시．증장효응점주도，당정부규모교대시，제출효응점주도，당정부규모괄도시，복리효응점주도：②정부규모대사회복리정“도U형”영향。단기확장유리우경제발전화사회복리제고．단장기팽창칙유손우경제효솔화사회공평，중국괄도정부규모재0．2좌우：③정부규모대사회복리적영향작용대우정부간예작용，유우중국각성빈발전조건화발전수평존재현저차이。요방지지방정부규모과분편리0．2적괄도수평이조성지방정부채무규모팽창、과다제점시장화굉관경제불은정。본문위근년래중국각급정부규모적확장편향제출료경시여계시．
The paper proposes a new hypothesis of moderate size of government＇s welfare effects, and has carried on the empirical test by using inter-provincial dynamic panel data of 2000-2012 and $YS-GMM method. We find, moderate size of government not only can conducive to economic growth, but also conducive to improve social welfare, There are three effects of the size of government, when the government is small, the growth effect dominates, when government is large, the crowding-ont effect dominates, and when it is moderate, the Welfare effect dominates. Government size affect social welfare and preset “inverted U”, expanding the size of government in short-term can promote economic development and improve the social welfare, but is detrimental to economic efficiency and social justice in the long-term, the moderate size of government is 0.2. The size of government influence on social welfare is greater than the intervention of the government, due to the conditions and level of development of each province are significant differences, to prevent the expansion of the size of local government debt, excessive crowding the market and macroeconomic instability, which caused by the local government size excessive deviation from the modest level of 0.2. The article raise the alert and inspiration for the size expand of the Chinese government at all levels in recent years.
