CAJ | 학술논문

集聚经济具有两面性，集聚正（负）外部性在不同的集聚阶段可能交替出现。本文从行业异质性视角入手．引入过度集聚带来的拥挤效应重新考察中国制造业全要素生产率的变化．并采用非线性门限回归模型考察不同类型产业集聚效应的门槛特征并确定最佳的转移时机和区位选择。研究表明：产业集聚对行业生产率的影响并非单调递增（递减），其影响系数在不同行业、不同集聚区间是有所差异的，即随着产业集聚度由弱变强。会对行业生产率产生先提高后降低的影响．且具有显著的三重非线性门槛特征。根据集聚程度与生产率两者的匹配关系给出了集聚推进、集聚适中和集聚过度判断的标准。中国行业生产率与集聚活动呈现空间错配特征．集聚转移的区位选择取决于集聚经济与重新选址的沉没成本之间的权衡比较。本文政策涵义明显：政府应重构产业区域协同发展机制．通过产业链的协同创新机制实施多层次多极的空间战略；产业政策切忌走入盲目提高集聚度或降低集聚度的误区．应针对不同的行业要素特征和发展阶段，采取差异化的集聚政策．
집취경제구유량면성，집취정（부）외부성재불동적집취계단가능교체출현。본문종행업이질성시각입수．인입과도집취대래적옹제효응중신고찰중국제조업전요소생산솔적변화．병채용비선성문한회귀모형고찰불동류형산업집취효응적문함특정병학정최가적전이시궤화구위선택。연구표명：산업집취대행업생산솔적영향병비단조체증（체감），기영향계수재불동행업、불동집취구간시유소차이적，즉수착산업집취도유약변강。회대행업생산솔산생선제고후강저적영향．차구유현저적삼중비선성문함특정。근거집취정도여생산솔량자적필배관계급출료집취추진、집취괄중화집취과도판단적표준。중국행업생산솔여집취활동정현공간착배특정．집취전이적구위선택취결우집취경제여중신선지적침몰성본지간적권형비교。본문정책함의명현：정부응중구산업구역협동발전궤제．통과산업련적협동창신궤제실시다층차다겁적공간전략；산업정책절기주입맹목제고집취도혹강저집취도적오구．응침대불동적행업요소특정화발전계단，채취차이화적집취정책．
Industrial agglomeration has two sides, positive and negative externalities may occur at different stages of agglomeration. From the angle of industry heterogeneity, the paper introduces the crowding effect caused by excessive agglomeration to analyze the change of total factor productivity of manufacturing in China and use nonlinear threshold regression model to study threshold characteristics of different types of industrial agglomeration and determine the optimal level of agglomeration. The results show that the industrial agglomeration＇s effect on productivity is not monotone increasing （decreasing）, the influential coefficient in different industries and interval is different. With the increase of industrial agglomeration, the impact on the industry productivity first increases and then decreases and presents three nonlinear thresholds. According to the given tradeoff between agglomeration degree and productivity, the paper presents the judgment standard of promoting, moderate and excessive agglomeration. Chinese industrial productivity and agglomeration activities present the characteristics of spatial mismatch. Agglomeration choice depends on the relationship between agglomeration economy and sunk cost for relocation. The policy implication is obvious： the government should reconstruct the industrial collaborative mechanisms among regions to implement the multi-spatial strategy through the collaborative innovation mechanism of industrial chain. Government should avoid blindly increasing （decreasing） agglomeration degree and instead establish differentiated agglomeration level in accordance with the realistic characteristics of various industries.