CAJ | 학술논문

电力行业是我国二氧化碳排放最多的行业之一.本文建立了基于成分数据降维的政府干预产业结构预测模型,结合灰色预测法,依据不同的发展阶段,从单位GDP用电量增长率的角度,研究了2011年-2040年产业结构优化对电力行业碳减排的影响,研究发现：（1）在现有情景下,仅通过产业结构优化调整,单位GDP用电量的临界点将提前出现,在基准情景下（保持现有发展速度）,2012年出现临界点,强化情景下（提高第三产业发展速度）,2017年达临界点.（2）由于电力是高品质能源,仅通过产业结构优化,而不考虑技术进步,未来2040年以前,达不到耗电峰值;（3）由于第二产业基数较大,短期内产业结构优化效果并不明显,在临界点出现之前,减少碳排放的关键在于加大对电力行业节能减排技术的投入和使用,同时大力发展风电、光伏发电、生物质能和核能等清洁电源,改善我国电源结构.
전역행업시아국이양화탄배방최다적행업지일.본문건립료기우성분수거강유적정부간예산업결구예측모형,결합회색예측법,의거불동적발전계단,종단위GDP용전량증장솔적각도,연구료2011년-2040년산업결구우화대전역행업탄감배적영향,연구발현：（1）재현유정경하,부통과산업결구우화조정,단위GDP용전량적림계점장제전출현,재기준정경하（보지현유발전속도）,2012년출현림계점,강화정경하（제고제삼산업발전속도）,2017년체림계점.（2）유우전력시고품질능원,부통과산업결구우화,이불고필기술진보,미래2040년이전,체불도모전봉치;（3）유우제이산업기수교대,단기내산업결구우화효과병불명현,재림계점출현지전,감소탄배방적관건재우가대대전역행업절능감배기술적투입화사용,동시대력발전풍전、광복발전、생물질능화핵능등청길전원,개선아국전원결구.
Global warming will continue to intensify and produce more significant negative impact on social economy and natural ecological system.As a main carbon emission country,China has the responsibility and obligation to reduce carbon emission.China＇s current main power source is thermal power,which makes the electric power industry to be one of the largest carbon dioxide emission industries.Therefore,it is imperative to first investigate how to reduce carbon emission for electric power industry in China.Macro-economic structure affects electric power industry＇s potential carbon emissions.We develop a government intervention industry structure prediction model based on composition data dimension reduction,the Grey prediction,and electricity consumption per unit of GDP growth rate.The model can help analyze the relationship between industrial structure optimization and carbon emission in electric power industry.Three scenarios,including Benchmark scenario,strengthen scenario I and strengthen scenario Ⅱ,are proposed to discuss the impact of industrial structure optimization on electric power industry＇s carbon emissions.The total carbon emission of electric power industry is affected by the electric power demand and carbon emission factors.The power demand of per unit of GDP varies with industries.Because the industrial structure optimization changes the electric power demand of per unit of GDP and the total electric power demand,the carbon emission of electric power industry is also changed.However,the carbon emission factors are decided by the technical level of electric power industry.The industrial structure optimization has little influence on carbon emission factors.Technical progress is not considered because technology progress influence is not considered,and related technical datum is same with the datum year 2005.The future power consumption per unit of GDP is dependent on future industrial structure and electricity consumption per unit of GDP for these three industries.The findings of this study have some implications.First,only through adjustment and optimization of industrial structure can the critical point of electric power quantity per GDP appear early.In the baseline scenario,the critical point will appear in 2022.In the aggrandizement scenario,the critical point will appear in 2017.Second,only through the optimization of industrial structure and ignorance of the technical progress could reach the peak of electric power in 2040 because electric power is high-quality energy.Third,the optimization effect in short term is not obvious because the GDP of the second industry is the largest.Before the critical point appears,the key way to reducing carbon emissions is to increase the investment on the technology of energy conservation and emission reduction.At the same time,Chinese government needs to continuously develop clean energy and improve the structure of Chinese power supply,such as wind power,photo electricity,biomass power,and nuclear power.