基于 ARIMA 模型的海南旅游者人数预测
기우 ARIMA 모형적해남여유자인수예측
The Forecasting of the Tourist Numbers of in Hainan by ARIMA Model
  • 国家社科期刊
    科技和产业 과기화산업
    SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL
    2014年 4期 24~27 ,共null页

    张侨 蔡道成

    장교 채도성

    海南 自回归求积移动平均模型 旅游者人数 海南 自迴歸求積移動平均模型 旅遊者人數
    해남 자회귀구적이동평균모형 여유자인수
    Hainan;ARIMA Model;tourist numbers
    根据历年海南接待旅游者人数相关数据，分析海南接待旅游者人数的长期趋势、季节性和随机扰动等特征，应用SPSS软件，建立ARIMA时间序列模型，对海南旅游者人数进行预测。
    근거력년해남접대여유자인수상관수거，분석해남접대여유자인수적장기추세、계절성화수궤우동등특정，응용SPSS연건，건립ARIMA시간서렬모형，대해남여유자인수진행예측。
    in this paper ,according to the relevant data of tourism numbers received by Hainan for the past few years ,the author analyzes the char-acteristics such as long trend ,seasonality and random interference Constructs ARIMA model and forecasts the tourism numbers in Hainan in few months .
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