CAJ | 학술논문

为了实现对公共自行车租赁系统需求量的预测，从而能够帮助租赁系统提前做出合理的调度，满足租赁人群出行的需要。提出了基于圆分布法与时间序列模型的定量分析方法。一方面，运用圆分布法分析在潮汐性交通现象下公共自行车租赁需求量的定量特征，从而确定公共自行车租赁的需求高峰时段。另一方面，运用时间序列模型对高峰期的租赁需求量进行分析和预测。通过预测结果与实际值的对比，证实了本文提出的方法的有效性。
위료실현대공공자행차조임계통수구량적예측，종이능구방조조임계통제전주출합리적조도，만족조임인군출행적수요。제출료기우원분포법여시간서렬모형적정량분석방법。일방면，운용원분포법분석재조석성교통현상하공공자행차조임수구량적정량특정，종이학정공공자행차조임적수구고봉시단。령일방면，운용시간서렬모형대고봉기적조임수구량진행분석화예측。통과예측결과여실제치적대비，증실료본문제출적방법적유효성。
In order to forecast the demand of a public bicycle system, obtain effective schedule, and satis- fy the public requirement, a method is proposed to analyze the demands of public bicycles by using a cir- cular distribution and time series model. The demand peak for a public bicycle system is first determined by using the method of circular distribution. Then model. The effectiveness of the proposed method and the reality , the demand at the peak is analyzed by using time series is verified by comparison between the predicted demand