CAJ | 학술논문

基于黄山风景区1987年1月至2010年12月的月度客流数据,运用TRAMO/SEATS方法和小波分析方法分析了黄山风景区客流的季节性变化和多时间尺度特征,结果表明：黄山风景区客流季节性变化显著,不仅存在月度波动性,而且季节性波动呈现年度变化性,客流淡季过长,淡季与平季、旺季落差过大是黄山风景区面临的经营难题;具有6个月、12个月、29个月和60个月不同时间尺度的周期变化,其中12个月的周期振荡最为明显,具有全域性;另外,6个月和12个月的时间特征尺度体现了黄山风景区客流由于季节性因素形成的年内季节性变化和年间的周期性变化,而29个月和60个月的时间特征尺度初步判断为由我国旅游业波动周期、景区外围区域经济周期和危机事件冲击影响共同作用所形成.最后,本文提出了一些对应性策略.
기우황산풍경구1987년1월지2010년12월적월도객류수거,운용TRAMO/SEATS방법화소파분석방법분석료황산풍경구객류적계절성변화화다시간척도특정,결과표명：황산풍경구객류계절성변화현저,불부존재월도파동성,이차계절성파동정현년도변화성,객류담계과장,담계여평계、왕계락차과대시황산풍경구면림적경영난제;구유6개월、12개월、29개월화60개월불동시간척도적주기변화,기중12개월적주기진탕최위명현,구유전역성;령외,6개월화12개월적시간특정척도체현료황산풍경구객류유우계절성인소형성적년내계절성변화화년간적주기성변화,이29개월화60개월적시간특정척도초보판단위유아국여유업파동주기、경구외위구역경제주기화위궤사건충격영향공동작용소형성.최후,본문제출료일사대응성책략.
Based on the data of seasonal variations and multiple time scale features of tourist arrivals in Huangshan Scenic Areas during 24 years between January 1987 and December 2010, this paper makes an analysis on the seasonal variations and multiple time scale features of tourist arrivals by applying TRAMO/SEATS and wavelet analysis methods. The results show： a. the seasonal variations including monthly fluctuations and annual variability of seasonal fluctuations is significant with too long off-season and too large gap between off-season and shoulder-peak season, a problem faced by Huangshan Scenic Areas; b. there are four significant periodic variations at scales of 6 months, 12 months, 29 months and 60 months of which 12-month periodic variation is most significant and throughout all 24 years; e. 6-month and 12-month periodic variations reflected monthly changes of the year and cyclical seasonal changes of the years by effect of seasonal factors, and it was preliminarily inferred that 29-month and 60-month periodic variations were the results of interactions of tourism industry fluctuation cycle, regional economic cycle and external shocks of crisis events. The article ends with some corresponding strategies.