人口研究
人口研究
인구연구
Population Research
2014年
3期
3~13
,共null页
庄亚儿 姜玉 王志理 李成福 齐嘉楠 王晖 刘鸿雁 李伯华 覃民
莊亞兒 薑玉 王誌理 李成福 齊嘉楠 王暉 劉鴻雁 李伯華 覃民
장아인 강옥 왕지리 리성복 제가남 왕휘 류홍안 리백화 담민
生育意愿 理想子女数 生育意愿调查 生育政策
生育意願 理想子女數 生育意願調查 生育政策
생육의원 이상자녀수 생육의원조사 생육정책
Fertility Intention, Ideal Number of Children, Fertility Intention Survey, Fertility Policy
2013年全国开展的生育意愿调查表明，当前城乡居民的理想子女数为1．93；实行一孩、一孩半、二孩政策地区分别为1．84、1．98、2．01；双独、单独、普通家庭分别为1．79、1．83、1．95；现有一孩单独家庭的理想子女数为1．81。全国城乡居民理想子女的性别比为104；理想子女数为1个、2个孩子的性别比分别为128、102。单独一孩家庭对生育下一个孩子时间安排，“未确定”的比例达59．O％，明年、后年、大后年的比例分别为20．5％、12．1％、8．4％。完善生育政策有助于缩小居民生育意愿与生育行为之间的差距，全面实施“单独二孩”政策，全国范围内不太可能出现出生堆积现象。
2013年全國開展的生育意願調查錶明，噹前城鄉居民的理想子女數為1．93；實行一孩、一孩半、二孩政策地區分彆為1．84、1．98、2．01；雙獨、單獨、普通傢庭分彆為1．79、1．83、1．95；現有一孩單獨傢庭的理想子女數為1．81。全國城鄉居民理想子女的性彆比為104；理想子女數為1箇、2箇孩子的性彆比分彆為128、102。單獨一孩傢庭對生育下一箇孩子時間安排，“未確定”的比例達59．O％，明年、後年、大後年的比例分彆為20．5％、12．1％、8．4％。完善生育政策有助于縮小居民生育意願與生育行為之間的差距，全麵實施“單獨二孩”政策，全國範圍內不太可能齣現齣生堆積現象。
2013년전국개전적생육의원조사표명，당전성향거민적이상자녀수위1．93；실행일해、일해반、이해정책지구분별위1．84、1．98、2．01；쌍독、단독、보통가정분별위1．79、1．83、1．95；현유일해단독가정적이상자녀수위1．81。전국성향거민이상자녀적성별비위104；이상자녀수위1개、2개해자적성별비분별위128、102。단독일해가정대생육하일개해자시간안배，“미학정”적비례체59．O％，명년、후년、대후년적비례분별위20．5％、12．1％、8．4％。완선생육정책유조우축소거민생육의원여생육행위지간적차거，전면실시“단독이해”정책，전국범위내불태가능출현출생퇴적현상。
In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the ＂Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings＂, a national fertility intention survey was conducted in 29 prov- inces in China in August 2013. Survey results indicate that, currently, the ideal number of children is 1.93 in China. The reported ideal number of children in regions with ] child, 1.5 and 2 children policies are 1.84, 1.98 and 2.01 respectively. For the couples both of which have no siblings, one of which has siblings and both of which have siblings, the reported ideal numbers of children are 1.79, 1.83 and 1.95 respectively. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child, the reported ideal number of children is 1.81. The overall sex ratio of reported ideal numbers of children is 104 males per 100 females in China. The sex ratio is 128 for those whose ideal number of children is 1 and 102 for those whose ideal number of children is 2. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child, .59% are ＂uncertain＂ about the birth timing of next child, 20..5% plan to give a birth in one year, 12. 1% plan to give a birth in two years and 8.4% plan to have one in three years. Adjustment of fami- ly planning policy will help narrow the gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior, and it is high- ly unlikely that a nation-wide birth heaping would occur if the ＂Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings＂ is well implemented.
