人口研究
人口研究
인구연구
Population Research
2014年
3期
89~103
,共null页
人口转型 年龄结构 居民消费 产业结构
人口轉型 年齡結構 居民消費 產業結構
인구전형 년령결구 거민소비 산업결구
Demographic Transition, Age Structure, Household Consumption, Industrial Structure
扩大内需是我国经济发展的战略方向。对2002—2009年城镇住户调查数据的分析表明,不同年龄居民的消费结构存在明显差异:青少年的教育文化娱乐和衣着支出较高,成年人的家庭设备和服务、交通和通信以及居住支出较高,而老年入的食品和医疗保健支出较高。人12年龄结构和居民消费结构之间的各项关联非常稳健。通过判断年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应的相对重要性,并同时控制一系列社会和经济特征效应后发现,消费者年龄是消费结构的关键决定因素。利用2013~2030年的人口预测数据推测发现,人口老龄化将对内需发展和产业结构产生重要影响。根据人口转型趋势把握产业发展方向并制定科学的产业政策,对我国经济稳定、持续、健康发展至关重要。
擴大內需是我國經濟髮展的戰略方嚮。對2002—2009年城鎮住戶調查數據的分析錶明,不同年齡居民的消費結構存在明顯差異:青少年的教育文化娛樂和衣著支齣較高,成年人的傢庭設備和服務、交通和通信以及居住支齣較高,而老年入的食品和醫療保健支齣較高。人12年齡結構和居民消費結構之間的各項關聯非常穩健。通過判斷年齡效應、時期效應和隊列效應的相對重要性,併同時控製一繫列社會和經濟特徵效應後髮現,消費者年齡是消費結構的關鍵決定因素。利用2013~2030年的人口預測數據推測髮現,人口老齡化將對內需髮展和產業結構產生重要影響。根據人口轉型趨勢把握產業髮展方嚮併製定科學的產業政策,對我國經濟穩定、持續、健康髮展至關重要。
확대내수시아국경제발전적전략방향。대2002—2009년성진주호조사수거적분석표명,불동년령거민적소비결구존재명현차이:청소년적교육문화오악화의착지출교고,성년인적가정설비화복무、교통화통신이급거주지출교고,이노년입적식품화의료보건지출교고。인12년령결구화거민소비결구지간적각항관련비상은건。통과판단년령효응、시기효응화대렬효응적상대중요성,병동시공제일계렬사회화경제특정효응후발현,소비자년령시소비결구적관건결정인소。이용2013~2030년적인구예측수거추측발현,인구노령화장대내수발전화산업결구산생중요영향。근거인구전형추세파악산업발전방향병제정과학적산업정책,대아국경제은정、지속、건강발전지관중요。
The strategic re-orientation of China' s economic growth is to expand domestic demand. Analyses of the Urban Household Survey data from 2002 to 2009 show that consumption structure signif- icantly vary across different ages: a higher expenditure share on education, recreation, and clothing for the youth, a higher expenditure share on household facilities, articles, and services, transportation, communication, and residence for the middle aged, and a higher expenditure share on medicine and medical services for the elderly. The relation between age and consumption structure is very robust. Af- ter comparing the relative importance of age, period, and cohort effects, and controlling for other so- cio-economic factors, age appears to be the fundamental driver of consumption budget allocation. Based on population forecast from 2015 to 2030, it is found that population aging will have a significant effect on domestic demand and industrial growth. It is imperative to direct industrial growth and make scientific industrial policies in accordance with demographic transition for a stable, sustainable, and healthy economic growth in China.