东北师大学报：哲学社会科学版
東北師大學報：哲學社會科學版
동북사대학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Northeast Normal University(Social Science)
2014年
3期
105~111
,共null页
外汇储备 宏观经济效应 状态空间模型
外彙儲備 宏觀經濟效應 狀態空間模型
외회저비 굉관경제효응 상태공간모형
Macroeconomic Effects ; Foreign Exchange Reserves ; the State-space Model
外汇储备增长对国家宏观经济发展具有重影响,笔者以我国总投资、总储蓄和总出口为考察对象,通过建立时变参数状态空间模型分析不同时期外汇储备的宏观经济效应。实证结果表明,除1993年到1997年外汇储备与消费负相关,1993年到2003年外汇储备与投资负相关外,其他时期外汇储备增加则有利于消费、投资和出口。但2000年之后,外汇储备对三个宏观经济变量的影响逐渐减小。
外彙儲備增長對國傢宏觀經濟髮展具有重影響,筆者以我國總投資、總儲蓄和總齣口為攷察對象,通過建立時變參數狀態空間模型分析不同時期外彙儲備的宏觀經濟效應。實證結果錶明,除1993年到1997年外彙儲備與消費負相關,1993年到2003年外彙儲備與投資負相關外,其他時期外彙儲備增加則有利于消費、投資和齣口。但2000年之後,外彙儲備對三箇宏觀經濟變量的影響逐漸減小。
외회저비증장대국가굉관경제발전구유중영향,필자이아국총투자、총저축화총출구위고찰대상,통과건립시변삼수상태공간모형분석불동시기외회저비적굉관경제효응。실증결과표명,제1993년도1997년외회저비여소비부상관,1993년도2003년외회저비여투자부상관외,기타시기외회저비증가칙유리우소비、투자화출구。단2000년지후,외회저비대삼개굉관경제변량적영향축점감소。
The growth of foreign exchange reserves have significant impacts on the country＇s macroeconomic development In this paper, we choose China＇s total investment, total savings and total exports as the study object to analyze the macroeconomic effects of different periods of foreign exchange reserves through the state-space model. The empirical results show that foreign exchange reserves had negatively correlated with consumption from 1993 to 1997 and had negatively correlated with investment from 1993 to 2003. At other times, the foreign exchange reserves would increase consumption,investment and exports. However, the impact of foreign exchange reserves of the three macroeconomic variables decreased after 2000.
