华中师范大学学报:人文社会科学版
華中師範大學學報:人文社會科學版
화중사범대학학보:인문사회과학판
Journal of Central China Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)
2014年
3期
44~50
,共null页
新兴经济体 增长趋缓 周期性因素 结构性因素
新興經濟體 增長趨緩 週期性因素 結構性因素
신흥경제체 증장추완 주기성인소 결구성인소
emerging economies; the slowdown of growth; cyclical factors; structural factors
本轮新兴经济体增长趋缓并非短期性现象,在未来较长一段时期都将趋于温和增长,这是由周期性和结构性因素决定的.一方面,新兴经济体面临的资本流入周期、出口增长周期和大宗商品价格上涨周期逐渐终结,发达经济体力推的区域性高标准贸易安排将主要的新兴经济体排除在外;另一方面,新兴经济体在高速增长的环境下错失了结构性改革的最佳时机,不仅在需求层面过度对外依赖,而且面临愈发凸显的供给层面约束.在此背景下,全球宏观经济政策开始进入调整期,中国的政策侧重点应从总需求管理转向总供给管理,并注意宏观经济金融指标对于结构调整的重要性.
本輪新興經濟體增長趨緩併非短期性現象,在未來較長一段時期都將趨于溫和增長,這是由週期性和結構性因素決定的.一方麵,新興經濟體麵臨的資本流入週期、齣口增長週期和大宗商品價格上漲週期逐漸終結,髮達經濟體力推的區域性高標準貿易安排將主要的新興經濟體排除在外;另一方麵,新興經濟體在高速增長的環境下錯失瞭結構性改革的最佳時機,不僅在需求層麵過度對外依賴,而且麵臨愈髮凸顯的供給層麵約束.在此揹景下,全毬宏觀經濟政策開始進入調整期,中國的政策側重點應從總需求管理轉嚮總供給管理,併註意宏觀經濟金融指標對于結構調整的重要性.
본륜신흥경제체증장추완병비단기성현상,재미래교장일단시기도장추우온화증장,저시유주기성화결구성인소결정적.일방면,신흥경제체면림적자본류입주기、출구증장주기화대종상품개격상창주기축점종결,발체경제체력추적구역성고표준무역안배장주요적신흥경제체배제재외;령일방면,신흥경제체재고속증장적배경하착실료결구성개혁적최가시궤,불부재수구층면과도대외의뢰,이차면림유발철현적공급층면약속.재차배경하,전구굉관경제정책개시진입조정기,중국적정책측중점응종총수구관리전향총공급관리,병주의굉관경제금융지표대우결구조정적중요성.
The slowdown of emerging economies' growth is not a short-term phenomenon, as it has been determined by cyclical and structural factors, which means those economies will go through a period of moderate growth in the near future. On one hand, the cycles of capital inflowing, export growing and commodity prices rising which benefited emerging economies a lot are gradually coming to an end. Advanced economies are now focusing on carefully selected regional trade arrangements with high standards, which exclude most emerging economies. On the other hand, indulged in the prosperity of rapid growth, emerging economies missed the best opportunity of implementing necessary structural reforms. Now they not only excessively rely on external demand, but also face increasingly prominent supply constraints. In this context, global macroeconomic policy has entered a period of adjustment. And China' s macroeconomic policy focus should shift from demand management to supply management, while avoiding ignoring the importance of financial indicators at the same time.