CAJ | 학술논문

本文比较性考察了居民和专家通货膨胀预期的异质性及预测能力，通胀预期在专家和普通公众之间传播问题，以及居民通胀预期的动态机制。研究结果表明：①居民和专家的预期都有历史通胀数据所没有包含的信息，两者对未来的通胀都有一定的预测能力，但专家的预期偏差要明显小于居民；②尽管居民和专家预期都存在短期偏差，但长期来看他们都不会系统性地高估或低估通胀；③从有效利用宏观经济信息的角度来看，专家吸收信息的广度和速度远强于居民，更接近理性预期。④流行病学模型能较好地刻画通胀预期从专家向居民的传导过程和居民预期的动态机制。
본문비교성고찰료거민화전가통화팽창예기적이질성급예측능력，통창예기재전가화보통공음지간전파문제，이급거민통창예기적동태궤제。연구결과표명：①거민화전가적예기도유역사통창수거소몰유포함적신식，량자대미래적통창도유일정적예측능력，단전가적예기편차요명현소우거민；②진관거민화전가예기도존재단기편차，단장기래간타문도불회계통성지고고혹저고통창；③종유효이용굉관경제신식적각도래간，전가흡수신식적엄도화속도원강우거민，경접근이성예기。④류행병학모형능교호지각화통창예기종전가향거민적전도과정화거민예기적동태궤제。
This paper stydies the heterogeneity between the inflation expectations of households and professional forecasters, as well as the predictive power of these expectations and the dynamic mechanism by which inflation expectations spread from professional forecasters to general public. Our main conclusions are as follows： ①The inflation expectations of households and experts all contain useful information, which is not contained in the his- torical data of inflation ; the predictive power of experts＇ expectations to the future inflation is significantly stron- ger than the residents＇. ②Although there are short - term forecast errors, they didn＇t overestimate or underesti- mate inflation systematically in the long run. ③The experts have more effectively utilized information in macro- economic variables than households do, so their inflation expectations are closer to rational expectations. ④The epidemiological model adequately captures the inflation expectations＇ transmission from experts to households and the dynamic mechanism of households＇ inflation expectations.