CAJ | 학술논문

基于我国A股2003—2010年的数据样本，本文研究了分析师现金流预测对盈余预测准确性的影响。结果发现，分析师现金流预测有助于其更好地理解盈余结构，进而有利于盈余预测准确性的提高。进一步，我国特有的退市以及增发配股制度提供了公开的盈余管理信号，对于盈余管理动机明显的公司，分析师发布现金流预测对提高盈余预测准确性的作用更加显著。本文的结论对理解分析师预测行为以及投资者决策具有重要的参考价值。
기우아국A고2003—2010년적수거양본，본문연구료분석사현금류예측대영여예측준학성적영향。결과발현，분석사현금류예측유조우기경호지리해영여결구，진이유리우영여예측준학성적제고。진일보，아국특유적퇴시이급증발배고제도제공료공개적영여관리신호，대우영여관리동궤명현적공사，분석사발포현금류예측대제고영여예측준학성적작용경가현저。본문적결론대리해분석사예측행위이급투자자결책구유중요적삼고개치。
This paper examines the effect of analysts＇ cash flow forecast on earnings forecast accuracy. We find that the relationship between analysts＇ cash flow forecasts and earnings forecast accuracy is positive, suggesting that cash flow forecasts can improve analysts＇ understanding of earnings structure and the accuracy of earnings forecast. Based on the unique delisting and SEO regulation on reported profitability, we find that for firms with public signals of earnings management incentives, analysts＇ cash flow forecast can reduce the negative effect of earnings management and significantly improve earnings forecast accuracy. Our research is useful to the under- standing of analysts＇ behavior and to the investors＇ investment decisions.