中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
6期
134~139
,共null页
结构转型 洛伦兹曲线 阈值协整 机制转移
結構轉型 洛倫玆麯線 閾值協整 機製轉移
결구전형 락륜자곡선 역치협정 궤제전이
structural transformation; Lorenz curve; threshold co-integration; regime switching
收入分配不公是影响社会协调发展的重要因素。为了从微观视角考察结构转型对贫富差距的影响.本文利用非线性阈值协整理论定量刻画了洛伦兹曲线随产业结构变化而发生变动的特征。研究结果表明:随着产业结构的不断变动,洛伦兹曲线斜率的变化具有非线性的特征.即当产业结构偏离均衡相同大小时,洛伦兹曲线恢复到均衡斜率的速度不同:产业结构的“突变”位置发生在结构转型程度为0.014处。该突变值对洛伦兹曲线斜率的影响存在显著的门槛效应,且该门槛效应发生在结构转变后的第3期。由此揭示的经济含义为:在结构发生转变的过程中。我国财政政策和货币政策效果具有滞后性和非对称性的特点,滞后性表现为当结构转型发生之后。洛伦兹曲线在滞后3期才发生明显的非线性变动作用,而非对称性表现为当结构转型发生变动时,我国政府未能兼顾财政政策和货币政策对收入分配所造成的不利冲击。从而导致收入分配不公的程度出现加剧恶化现象。因此,仅仅依靠市场机制对缩小贫富差距的作用不大,政府需要控制政策操作力度以及调整要素适应结构转型。从而达到缩小贫富差距的效果。
收入分配不公是影響社會協調髮展的重要因素。為瞭從微觀視角攷察結構轉型對貧富差距的影響.本文利用非線性閾值協整理論定量刻畫瞭洛倫玆麯線隨產業結構變化而髮生變動的特徵。研究結果錶明:隨著產業結構的不斷變動,洛倫玆麯線斜率的變化具有非線性的特徵.即噹產業結構偏離均衡相同大小時,洛倫玆麯線恢複到均衡斜率的速度不同:產業結構的“突變”位置髮生在結構轉型程度為0.014處。該突變值對洛倫玆麯線斜率的影響存在顯著的門檻效應,且該門檻效應髮生在結構轉變後的第3期。由此揭示的經濟含義為:在結構髮生轉變的過程中。我國財政政策和貨幣政策效果具有滯後性和非對稱性的特點,滯後性錶現為噹結構轉型髮生之後。洛倫玆麯線在滯後3期纔髮生明顯的非線性變動作用,而非對稱性錶現為噹結構轉型髮生變動時,我國政府未能兼顧財政政策和貨幣政策對收入分配所造成的不利遲擊。從而導緻收入分配不公的程度齣現加劇噁化現象。因此,僅僅依靠市場機製對縮小貧富差距的作用不大,政府需要控製政策操作力度以及調整要素適應結構轉型。從而達到縮小貧富差距的效果。
수입분배불공시영향사회협조발전적중요인소。위료종미관시각고찰결구전형대빈부차거적영향.본문이용비선성역치협정이론정량각화료락륜자곡선수산업결구변화이발생변동적특정。연구결과표명:수착산업결구적불단변동,락륜자곡선사솔적변화구유비선성적특정.즉당산업결구편리균형상동대소시,락륜자곡선회복도균형사솔적속도불동:산업결구적“돌변”위치발생재결구전형정도위0.014처。해돌변치대락륜자곡선사솔적영향존재현저적문함효응,차해문함효응발생재결구전변후적제3기。유차게시적경제함의위:재결구발생전변적과정중。아국재정정책화화폐정책효과구유체후성화비대칭성적특점,체후성표현위당결구전형발생지후。락륜자곡선재체후3기재발생명현적비선성변동작용,이비대칭성표현위당결구전형발생변동시,아국정부미능겸고재정정책화화폐정책대수입분배소조성적불리충격。종이도치수입분배불공적정도출현가극악화현상。인차,부부의고시장궤제대축소빈부차거적작용불대,정부수요공제정책조작력도이급조정요소괄응결구전형。종이체도축소빈부차거적효과。
Unequal distribution of income is an important factor which influences social coordination development. In order to consider the effect of structural transformation on wealth gap from micro perspective, this article uses nonlinear threshold co-integration theory to portray Lorenz curve' s character with the changes in the industrial structure. The results show that the slope of Lorenz curve has nonlinear characteristic with the continuous changes of industrial structure ; that is, when industrial structure deviates from the balanced value, Lorenz curve restores to balance at a different speed. Industrial structure "mutation" position occurs at the structural transition of 0.014, the mutation value has significant threshold effect on Lorenz curve slope, and the threshold effect occurs in the first three post-structural changes. Thus the article reveals the economic meaning: in the process of structural transformation, China' s fiscal policy and monetary policy have hysteresis and asymmetry characteristics. Hysteresis means that when structural transformation occurs, Lorenz curve begins to change obviously in the following three periods. However, symmetry means that when structural transformation occurs, our government fails to take full account of fiscal policy and monetary policy' s adverse effect, thus leading to the level of income distribution inequality exacerbates. Therefore, it is less meaningful to narrow the income gap between rich and poor. In order to achieve the effect of narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, our government needs to control the degree of policy operation and adjust factor to suit for structural transformation.