CAJ | 학술논문

后金融危机时期如何保持中国出口常态增长成为当前中国外部经济面临的难题。本文基于CEPII—BACI数据库1995—2010年中国HS6分位数产品出口贸易数据，运用Logit回归模型研究先前的出口持续时间对于产品进入新市场的概率的影响。研究发现，出口持续时间可以促进产品进入新市场，且出口持续时间每增加一年，产品进入新市场的概率将提高0．17倍；更重要的是，出口持续时间与新市场进入之间存在一种“倒U型”曲线的关系，即在最初阶段出口持续时间会促进新市场的进入，但是这种影响随着时间递减，且当出口持续时间达到一个临界值时，这种积极的影响会消失。这一结论的政策含义在于，政府应适当鼓励企业深化现有贸易关系，这更有助于开拓新市场，进而保持中国出口常态增长。
후금융위궤시기여하보지중국출구상태증장성위당전중국외부경제면림적난제。본문기우CEPII—BACI수거고1995—2010년중국HS6분위수산품출구무역수거，운용Logit회귀모형연구선전적출구지속시간대우산품진입신시장적개솔적영향。연구발현，출구지속시간가이촉진산품진입신시장，차출구지속시간매증가일년，산품진입신시장적개솔장제고0．17배；경중요적시，출구지속시간여신시장진입지간존재일충“도U형”곡선적관계，즉재최초계단출구지속시간회촉진신시장적진입，단시저충영향수착시간체감，차당출구지속시간체도일개림계치시，저충적겁적영향회소실。저일결론적정책함의재우，정부응괄당고려기업심화현유무역관계，저경유조우개탁신시장，진이보지중국출구상태증장。
How to maintain the normal growth of Chinese exports has become the current issue of China＇s external economic during the post-financial crisis period. Based on the CEPII-BACI dataset of Chinese HS six-digit product export trade data from 1995 to 2010, this paper uses the Logit Regression Model to explore the relationship between prior export duration and new market entry. According to our empirical study, we arrive at the following conclusions that prior export duration can promote products to enter new market, and when export duration lasts 1 year longer, the probability of entering a new market will increase by 0.17 time. But when we join the square of export duration, we find that there exists a Ushaped effect between prior export duration and new market entry, which means that prior export duration increases the likelihood of new market entry at the initial stage, but this effect diminishes with time, and when the export duration arrives at a critical value, the positive effect will disappear. This finding suggests that government should appropriately encourage firms to continue the relationship of existing trade flows, and establish relationship with new trading partners, thus to insure that China＇s exports are in a sustainable and stable development.