CAJ | 학술논문

在动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型的理论框架下，结合转型期中国经济的特征事实，引入不确定性、信贷约束以及习惯形成等居民消费特征，采用贝叶斯（Bayes）估计方法分析1978—2012年间信贷约束与消费习惯形成特征对我国宏观经济波动和居民消费率的影响机制。研究结果表明，模型能够分别解释实际产出、消费、投资和就业波动的94．1％、84．5％、50．7％和74．5％；同时探讨家庭消费行为变迁对居民消费率的影响，研究发现，短期内收入冲击与偏好冲击对居民消费率均有刺激作用，但长期内两者对消费率的影响有较大差异，即收入冲击的正向作用有明显的持续性，而偏好冲击使居民消费率更加萎缩；同时，习惯形成特征有效平滑了居民消费，有效减弱了不确定性对居民消费率和储蓄率的影响。
재동태수궤일반균형（DSGE）모형적이론광가하，결합전형기중국경제적특정사실，인입불학정성、신대약속이급습관형성등거민소비특정，채용패협사（Bayes）고계방법분석1978—2012년간신대약속여소비습관형성특정대아국굉관경제파동화거민소비솔적영향궤제。연구결과표명，모형능구분별해석실제산출、소비、투자화취업파동적94．1％、84．5％、50．7％화74．5％；동시탐토가정소비행위변천대거민소비솔적영향，연구발현，단기내수입충격여편호충격대거민소비솔균유자격작용，단장기내량자대소비솔적영향유교대차이，즉수입충격적정향작용유명현적지속성，이편호충격사거민소비솔경가위축；동시，습관형성특정유효평활료거민소비，유효감약료불학정성대거민소비솔화저축솔적영향。
Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model, this paper combine the facts of transitional period of Chinese economy, and introduce the uncertainty （income and preferences）, credit constraints and habit formation into the DSGE model, to analyze the mechanism between credit constraints, habit formation and the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables by the Bayes estimation methods from 1978 to 2012. The main findings include：the model canexplain about 94. 1%, 84. 5%, 50. 7% and 94. 1% of the actual output, consumption, in- vestment and employment volatility. After comparative analyzing, it shows that the technology shock and revenue shock has more significant effect on the macroeconomic variables than the preference shock. The technology shock has the negative effect for the ratio of consumption. But the income shock has the positive effect for the ratio of con- sumption, and the preference shocks＇ effect for the ratio of consumption is positive firstly and negative secondly. The habit formation can weaken the influence of uncertainty on the residents consumption rate and saving rate.