经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2014年
6期
101~106
,共null页
佟金萍 马剑锋 王慧敏 秦腾 王倩
佟金萍 馬劍鋒 王慧敏 秦騰 王倩
동금평 마검봉 왕혜민 진등 왕천
农业全要素用水效率 超效率DEA Tobit模型 影响因素
農業全要素用水效率 超效率DEA Tobit模型 影響因素
농업전요소용수효솔 초효솔DEA Tobit모형 영향인소
agricultural total - factor water use efficiency ; super - efficiency DEA ; Tobit model ; influencing factors
借鉴全要素用水效率的测度思路，运用超效率DEA方法和Tobit模型展开农业全要素用水效率的测度及影响因素分析，研究发现：全国农业全要素用水效率呈先降后升再回落走势，东、中、西部呈递减格局，且西部显著低于东、中部；年降水量、农产品进出口以及供水结构中地下水所占比例与农业用水效率均呈较显著的正向关系；人均水资源量与用水效率呈负向关系，表明丰水地区需加强节水措施；在灌溉费与农业全要素用水效率关系上，全国、东部和中部模型结果与西部模型结果表现不一，但灌溉费与每亩灌溉水量呈显著的负向关系，表明灌溉费的节水效应是显著的，也意味着水价政策的节水效应将促进节约水量流向用水效益更高的用水户，进而提高整体的农业用水效益。
藉鑒全要素用水效率的測度思路，運用超效率DEA方法和Tobit模型展開農業全要素用水效率的測度及影響因素分析，研究髮現：全國農業全要素用水效率呈先降後升再迴落走勢，東、中、西部呈遞減格跼，且西部顯著低于東、中部；年降水量、農產品進齣口以及供水結構中地下水所佔比例與農業用水效率均呈較顯著的正嚮關繫；人均水資源量與用水效率呈負嚮關繫，錶明豐水地區需加彊節水措施；在灌溉費與農業全要素用水效率關繫上，全國、東部和中部模型結果與西部模型結果錶現不一，但灌溉費與每畝灌溉水量呈顯著的負嚮關繫，錶明灌溉費的節水效應是顯著的，也意味著水價政策的節水效應將促進節約水量流嚮用水效益更高的用水戶，進而提高整體的農業用水效益。
차감전요소용수효솔적측도사로，운용초효솔DEA방법화Tobit모형전개농업전요소용수효솔적측도급영향인소분석，연구발현：전국농업전요소용수효솔정선강후승재회락주세，동、중、서부정체감격국，차서부현저저우동、중부；년강수량、농산품진출구이급공수결구중지하수소점비례여농업용수효솔균정교현저적정향관계；인균수자원량여용수효솔정부향관계，표명봉수지구수가강절수조시；재관개비여농업전요소용수효솔관계상，전국、동부화중부모형결과여서부모형결과표현불일，단관개비여매무관개수량정현저적부향관계，표명관개비적절수효응시현저적，야의미착수개정책적절수효응장촉진절약수량류향용수효익경고적용수호，진이제고정체적농업용수효익。
According to the estimation idea of agricultural total - factor water use efficiency, the efficiency is es- timated by the method of super - efficiency DEA. On the basis of the efficiency estimation, the influencing factors of the efficiency are tested by Tobit model. Some conclusions are as follows： During research period, agricultural to- tal - factor water resource use efficiency shows decline - rise - decline trend ; the efficiency of East, Middle and West in China is on the decrease, particularly the efficiency of western China is obviously lower than the one of east- ern and central China;Annual precipitation, import and export of agricultural products and the proportion of under- ground water in water structure have positive significant effects on agricultural total - factor water use efficiency; Water of per capita has a negative impact on agricultural total - factor water utility efficiency, this shows that water - saving measures should be enhanced in water - rich area; The study on the relation of irrigation fees and water u- tility efficiency has shown that the western model is different. But a results of the nation, eastern and middle model are the same, while the result of significant negative relation between irrigation fees and irrigation water per acre shows that water - saving effects of irrigation fees are remarkable. This means that saved water would be promoted to flow to higher- efficiency water users and overall agricultural water benefits improved.
