CAJ | 학술논문

近年来农产品金融化现象突出表现在农产品市场和期货市场、货币市场、国际市场的联动，农产品的金融属性日益明显。基于2000-2012年芝加哥商品交易所玉米期货价格的月度数据，从农产品金融化视角分析玉米期货价格波动情况，选择货币供给量、货币价格和投机情况三方面可量化因素分析对玉米期货价格的影响。结果表明：货币供给量和投机资本对农产品期货价格有推动作用，而美元指数对价格有抑制作用，金融化因素对玉米期货价格造成不同程度的影响。最后根据分析结果，建议加强农产品期货市场的风险防范，完善我国农产品期货市场，防范过度投机。
근년래농산품금융화현상돌출표현재농산품시장화기화시장、화폐시장、국제시장적련동，농산품적금융속성일익명현。기우2000-2012년지가가상품교역소옥미기화개격적월도수거，종농산품금융화시각분석옥미기화개격파동정황，선택화폐공급량、화폐개격화투궤정황삼방면가양화인소분석대옥미기화개격적영향。결과표명：화폐공급량화투궤자본대농산품기화개격유추동작용，이미원지수대개격유억제작용，금융화인소대옥미기화개격조성불동정도적영향。최후근거분석결과，건의가강농산품기화시장적풍험방범，완선아국농산품기화시장，방범과도투궤。
In recent years, financialization plays an outstanding role in the agricultural commodity market and futures market. There is close linkage among futures market, money market and international market. Based on the monthly data of corn futures price on Chicago Board of Trade from 2000 to 2012, this paper analyzes CBOT corn futures price volatility in the perspective of agricultural financialization. The paper chooses three factors： money supply quantity, the price of the currency and speculation factor to analyze price volatility. The empirical a- nalysis results show that： the money supply and speculative capital play a role in promoting agricultural futures prices, while the US dollar index suppresses the price from rising. Financialization factors cause varying degrees of impact on corn futures prices. Finally, according to the analysis, it is recommended to strengthen the agricultural futures market risk prevention, improve China＇s agricultural futures market to prevent excessive speculation.