CAJ | 학술논문

中国自1978年推行改革开放以来,经济实现了迅速的增长.在这一过程中,人口与劳动力也经历了深刻的变动.人口总数从1978年的9.6亿增长到2012年的13.5亿,人口增长率从1978年的1.2%下降到2012年的0.5%.城市常住人口占总人口的比重从1978年的17.9%上升到2012年的52.6%.劳动力就业结构也发生了显著的变化.农业劳动力在总劳动力中所占的比重从1978年的70.5%下降到2011年的34.8%,工业与服务业劳动力在总劳动力中所占的比重分别从1978年的17.3%和12.2%上升到2011年的29.5%和35.7%.农业劳动力数量自2003年后再次经历持续的下降.推动中国过去30多年人口变迁与劳动力转移的一个主要力量是经济增长.在总体上,中国的人口变迁与劳动力转移呈现出一些伴随经济增长的普遍的规律性现象.然而,由于在过去30多年期间中国推行的特殊的人口政策——具有指令性计划性质的计划生育政策和管制性的户籍政策,造成了一些人口变迁和人口结构上的扭曲.当前,中国整体上仍属于中低收入国家,但人口增长率、生育率已达到历史上发达国家基本完成工业化和城市化时的水平,并开始面临发达国家进入后工业化时代（工业在经济中的比重开始下降）才开始出现的人口老龄化与年轻劳动力短缺,而中国当前还远未完成工业化与城市化的进程.在未来5～10年内,中国需要对现行的人口政策进行一些重大的调整,包括全面取消具有指令性计划性质的计划生育及管制性的户籍政策,对属于高中阶段的工业与农业职业技术教育实行免费.
중국자1978년추행개혁개방이래,경제실현료신속적증장.재저일과정중,인구여노동력야경력료심각적변동.인구총수종1978년적9.6억증장도2012년적13.5억,인구증장솔종1978년적1.2%하강도2012년적0.5%.성시상주인구점총인구적비중종1978년적17.9%상승도2012년적52.6%.노동력취업결구야발생료현저적변화.농업노동력재총노동력중소점적비중종1978년적70.5%하강도2011년적34.8%,공업여복무업노동력재총노동력중소점적비중분별종1978년적17.3%화12.2%상승도2011년적29.5%화35.7%.농업노동력수량자2003년후재차경력지속적하강.추동중국과거30다년인구변천여노동력전이적일개주요역량시경제증장.재총체상,중국적인구변천여노동력전이정현출일사반수경제증장적보편적규률성현상.연이,유우재과거30다년기간중국추행적특수적인구정책——구유지령성계화성질적계화생육정책화관제성적호적정책,조성료일사인구변천화인구결구상적뉴곡.당전,중국정체상잉속우중저수입국가,단인구증장솔、생육솔이체도역사상발체국가기본완성공업화화성시화시적수평,병개시면림발체국가진입후공업화시대（공업재경제중적비중개시하강）재개시출현적인구노령화여년경노동력단결,이중국당전환원미완성공업화여성시화적진정.재미래5～10년내,중국수요대현행적인구정책진행일사중대적조정,포괄전면취소구유지령성계화성질적계화생육급관제성적호적정책,대속우고중계단적공업여농업직업기술교육실행면비.
China has witnessed rapid economic growth since 1978, and deep changes in population and laborforce as well during the reform process. The total population increased from 960 million in 1978 to 1. 35 billionin 2012, while the annual growth rate of the population decreased from 1. 2% to 0. 5% in the same time periodand the share of urban residents in the total increased from 17. 9% to 52. 6%. The employment structure under-went significant change during the same time： the share of labor force employed in agriculture decreased from 70. 5% in 1978 to 34. 8% in 2011, while that of industry and service sectors increased from 17. 3% and 12. 2%to 29. 5% and 35. 7%, respectively. One of the major forces behind the demographic change and labor migrationis the economic growth, revealing some common pattern following economic growth. However, the unique popu-lation policies implemented in China also resulted in some distortions in demographic structure. Currently, Chinais still among the low-mid income countries, but the population growth rate has reached the level as revealed indeveloped countries at the stage of completing industrialization. Therefore, China is facing population aging andlabor shortage that typically occur when countries entered post-industrialization era, while in fact is still far awayfrom completion of industrialization and urbanization. In the near future, China needs to adjust its populationpolicies in order to meet the challenges.