统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2014年
6期
25~32
,共null页
房地产价格 宏观经济因素 VAR模型 长短期分解
房地產價格 宏觀經濟因素 VAR模型 長短期分解
방지산개격 굉관경제인소 VAR모형 장단기분해
Real estate price; Real economy; VAR model; Permanent-Transitory decomposition
本文将购房者、房产商与中央银行纳入统一的模型当中,对房价的影响因素进行理论建模,然后拓展了传统的向量自回归模型长短期分解技术,研究了利率、通货膨胀率、汇率、土地价格以及经济增长率对房价的长期和短期影响.研究表明,利率上升对房价具有长期的负向效应,短期内会加剧房价的波动;通货膨胀预期在长期内促使资金流入房地产行业,对房价会产生推动作用,短期内,通货膨胀促使房地产企业加快投资速度,房屋供给增加预期引起房价下降的冲击;人民币升值在长短期内均与房价上涨存在正向作用;当前经济增速提高时,对房地产业的投资和投机具有一定的抑制作用;土地价格长期来看推动房价上涨,短期内对房价影响的传导较慢.
本文將購房者、房產商與中央銀行納入統一的模型噹中,對房價的影響因素進行理論建模,然後拓展瞭傳統的嚮量自迴歸模型長短期分解技術,研究瞭利率、通貨膨脹率、彙率、土地價格以及經濟增長率對房價的長期和短期影響.研究錶明,利率上升對房價具有長期的負嚮效應,短期內會加劇房價的波動;通貨膨脹預期在長期內促使資金流入房地產行業,對房價會產生推動作用,短期內,通貨膨脹促使房地產企業加快投資速度,房屋供給增加預期引起房價下降的遲擊;人民幣升值在長短期內均與房價上漲存在正嚮作用;噹前經濟增速提高時,對房地產業的投資和投機具有一定的抑製作用;土地價格長期來看推動房價上漲,短期內對房價影響的傳導較慢.
본문장구방자、방산상여중앙은행납입통일적모형당중,대방개적영향인소진행이론건모,연후탁전료전통적향량자회귀모형장단기분해기술,연구료리솔、통화팽창솔、회솔、토지개격이급경제증장솔대방개적장기화단기영향.연구표명,리솔상승대방개구유장기적부향효응,단기내회가극방개적파동;통화팽창예기재장기내촉사자금류입방지산행업,대방개회산생추동작용,단기내,통화팽창촉사방지산기업가쾌투자속도,방옥공급증가예기인기방개하강적충격;인민폐승치재장단기내균여방개상창존재정향작용;당전경제증속제고시,대방지산업적투자화투궤구유일정적억제작용;토지개격장기래간추동방개상창,단기내대방개영향적전도교만.
In this paper, we have studied short-term and long-term impact of macroeconomic factors on housing price. First, buyers, real estate business, and central bank were put into a unified model, and we have established a theoretical model about factors that influence housing price. Second, improved short-term and long-term decomposition of traditional vector autoregression model, we have studied short-term and long-term impact of interest rates, land prices and other macroeconomic variables--inflation, exchange rate and economic growth rate on housing price. The results show that interest rate rise has a long-term negative effect on housing price, the tightening of monetary policy can play an important in restraining housing price rise excessively, and in the short term it can aggravate the volatility of housing price ; Land price promotes housing price in the long term, compared with other economic variables, the price of land has little impact on house price, and shows a lower conduction velocity. In addition, the rise in price causing buyers to expect interest rates rise has a negative impact on housing price in the short run. But, rising price highlights the preserve value of real estate, so it can stimulate housing price rise in the long run. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on housing price rise in the short and long run. Improving of economic growth rate can hinder demand of speculating and investing real estate to some extent.
