CAJ | 학술논문

从影响物流能力要素的角度,利用1991 年至2011 年之间的经济数据对“物流产业”与“经济增长”之间的关系进行实证分析.通过对指标数据进行主成分分析,得出影响物流能力的三个因素为：基础因素、结构因素、市场因素.在此基础上,依据调整后的因素指标数据进行协整分析,得出三因素与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,且基础因素、结构因素与经济增长正相关.同时,通过VAR 模型的建立分析了三因素与经济增长之间的短期互动关系,并依据格兰杰因果检验结果对“物流与经济增长”模糊模型进行调整,细化了物流产业与经济增长之间的互动过程.最后,根据实证分析结果,从基础建设、优化结构、产业联动三方面给出相关政策建议.
종영향물류능력요소적각도,이용1991 년지2011 년지간적경제수거대“물유산업”여“경제증장”지간적관계진행실증분석.통과대지표수거진행주성분분석,득출영향물류능력적삼개인소위：기출인소、결구인소、시장인소.재차기출상,의거조정후적인소지표수거진행협정분석,득출삼인소여경제증장지간구유장기균형관계,차기출인소、결구인소여경제증장정상관.동시,통과VAR 모형적건립분석료삼인소여경제증장지간적단기호동관계,병의거격란걸인과검험결과대“물류여경제증장”모호모형진행조정,세화료물유산업여경제증장지간적호동과정.최후,근거실증분석결과,종기출건설、우화결구、산업련동삼방면급출상관정책건의.
In this paper, the authors used the annual data from 1991 to 2011 to make an empirical research on therelationship between logistics and economic growth in China. Three main factors that affect logistics capabilities arefound, namely Logistics Foundations, Industrial Structure and Market, among 18 factors through a principal componentanalysis. On this basis, we performed Granger Causality and Co-Integration Tests to investigate the long termrelationship among these three factors and economic growth. And we established a stable VAR model to verify the shortterm revision effects. What’s more, we adjusted the fuzzy “Logistics and Economic Growth” model with empiricalresults from the Granger Causality Test to show the way that logistics promotes the economic growth and vice versa.Finally, relevant policy recommendations are provided.