CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过采用空间面板数据模型，以淮河流域38个地级市为研究对象，运用Matlab2010b 等软件，利用空间经济学和空间统计学方法，对2000～2010年以来淮河流域大气环境和工业能源效应的时间和空间演化规律与特征进行了深入分析。研究发现，2000～2010年淮河流域的大气环境质量变量SO2排放和工业能源消费具有显著的空间集聚效应。实证结论显示淮河流域工业对本地区环境要素的利用效率还存在一定的改进空间，仅以能源消费作为促进经济发展的主要动力，以能源的高消耗为代价的经济发展方式，将来必然会带来一系列的环境问题和能源枯竭问题，因此，转变工业的结构方式，发展绿色、清洁能源消费产业，实现集约型工业经济将是淮河流域未来工业转型发展的方向。
본문통과채용공간면판수거모형，이회하류역38개지급시위연구대상，운용Matlab2010b 등연건，이용공간경제학화공간통계학방법，대2000～2010년이래회하류역대기배경화공업능원효응적시간화공간연화규률여특정진행료심입분석。연구발현，2000～2010년회하류역적대기배경질량변량SO2배방화공업능원소비구유현저적공간집취효응。실증결론현시회하류역공업대본지구배경요소적이용효솔환존재일정적개진공간，부이능원소비작위촉진경제발전적주요동력，이능원적고소모위대개적경제발전방식，장래필연회대래일계렬적배경문제화능원고갈문제，인차，전변공업적결구방식，발전록색、청길능원소비산업，실현집약형공업경제장시회하류역미래공업전형발전적방향。
By using the model of spatial panel data , this paper picks the 38 cities in Huaihe Valley as the object , using the soft-ware of Matlab2010b ,and makes use of the method of spatial economics and statistics to analyze the environmental and energy effects of time and space evolution regularity and characteristics of Huaihe Valley from 2000 to 2010 in - depth .The study revels that , in 2000 ~2010 , the emission of SO2 （which is the variable of atmospheric environment quality ） and energy consumption has significant agglomera-tion effects in Huaihe Valley .The empirical conclusions show that there is room for industrial improvement of the environmental elements u -tilization efficiency in Huaihe Valley .If it only depends on energy consumption as the main impetus to the development of economy ,and at the cost of the high consumption of energy ,this will bring a series of environmental problems and energy depletion problem .Therefore , transformation of industrial structure ,to develop green and clean energy industry ,and to realize intensive industrial economy will be the fu-ture developing direction of the industrial transformation of Huaihe Valley .