CAJ | 학술논문

分析碳排放情况，本文发现人均碳排放和碳排放密度之间没有必然联系；碳排放密度存在明显的空间群集效应。基于 LMDI 方法分解，发现人均产出起拉动作用，而能源效率和能源消费碳排放强度则主要是抑制作用。基于 STIRPAT 模型分析，发现人均总产出水平、单位产出的化石能源消耗量、煤炭消费占比均对碳排放有显著的强化作用。建议：大力发展便捷的公共交通、倡导绿色出行，减轻交通对大城市碳排放的压力；通过改变能源结构，通过电力能源生产外迁等方式降低排放密度超高的地区碳排放压力、开发清洁能源，降低二氧化碳高排放能源消费占比；对高能耗产业逐步实施“产能总量控制---限制出口---进口替代”路径的产业优化措施，逐步减轻“输入性碳排放”压力。
분석탄배방정황，본문발현인균탄배방화탄배방밀도지간몰유필연련계；탄배방밀도존재명현적공간군집효응。기우 LMDI 방법분해，발현인균산출기랍동작용，이능원효솔화능원소비탄배방강도칙주요시억제작용。기우 STIRPAT 모형분석，발현인균총산출수평、단위산출적화석능원소모량、매탄소비점비균대탄배방유현저적강화작용。건의：대력발전편첩적공공교통、창도록색출행，감경교통대대성시탄배방적압력；통과개변능원결구，통과전력능원생산외천등방식강저배방밀도초고적지구탄배방압력、개발청길능원，강저이양화탄고배방능원소비점비；대고능모산업축보실시“산능총량공제---한제출구---진구체대”로경적산업우화조시，축보감경“수입성탄배방”압력。
Based on descriptive statistics analysis method to analyze the 30 provinces and autonomous regions and the country’s car-bon dioxide emissions ,this paper found ： per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions density are not necessarily linked , secondary energy output region’s per capita carbon emissions are high ,and the density of carbon emissions is low ;carbon emissions density had obvi-ously spatial clustering effect .The LMDI method is used to decompose on the driving factors based on carbon emissions per capita ,found that per capita output has stimulating effect ,while energy efficiency and carbon intensity of energy consumption are inhibited .Based on analysis of influencing factors by STIRPAT model ,we found that per capita output ,fossil energy consumption per unit of output ,coal con-sumption accounted for carbon emissions have a significant strengthening effect .Thus it recommends to vigorously develop the convenient public transportation ,promote green travel ,and reduce traffic pressure on the city carbon emissions ; as supplementary carbon trading ,by changing the structure of energy , particularly through the relocation of electrical energy production ,etc .it should reduce carbon emission density in high pressure ;further we optimize the energy structure ,the development of clean energy , reduce the high emission energy con-sumption ratio ; the high energy consumption industry gradually implement the “capacity control - export restrictions and import substitu-tion” path of the industrial optimization measures , and gradually reduce “the input of carbon emissions” pressure .