CAJ | 학술논문

本文在垄断竞争条件下的出口供给模型的基础之上，运用2000—2011年147个国别面板数据考察了人民币汇率波动对中国出口贸易的影响，检验结果表明人民币汇率波动风险对出口贸易的影响在汇率改革前后、发达国家及发展中国家之间存在显著差异。继而采用门限回归方法构建非线性面板数据模型，进一步检验人民币汇率波动对中国出口贸易的非对称影响，结论显示：当人民币大幅升值时将阻碍出口，但人民币贬值和升值幅度较小时将促进出口。
본문재롱단경쟁조건하적출구공급모형적기출지상，운용2000—2011년147개국별면판수거고찰료인민폐회솔파동대중국출구무역적영향，검험결과표명인민폐회솔파동풍험대출구무역적영향재회솔개혁전후、발체국가급발전중국가지간존재현저차이。계이채용문한회귀방법구건비선성면판수거모형，진일보검험인민폐회솔파동대중국출구무역적비대칭영향，결론현시：당인민폐대폭승치시장조애출구，단인민폐폄치화승치폭도교소시장촉진출구。
On the basis of the export supply model, this article examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on China＇ s export trade by the use of panel data of 147 countries during 2000-2011. The results show the influence of the fluctuation risk of the RMB exchange rate on export varies distinctly between developed countries and developing countries as well as before and after China＇ s exchange rate reform. This article then constructs a non-linear panel data model based on the threshold regression method to investigate the nonlinear influence of exchange rate fluctuation on export trade. The findings suggest that export decreases while RMB appreciates to a certain extent, while export increases while RMB depreciates or appreciates fractionally.