CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用地理信息系统的探索性空间数据分析方法，考察中国农村人口出生性别比的空间分布格局及其演变特点。在此基础上，运用地理空间效应的空间变系数的地理加权回归模型，考察经济发展、城镇化水平、文化因素、社会保障因素、生育政策等对人口出生性别比的影响，识别各因素对农村人口出生性别比影响的地区差异。研究结果显示：出生性别比在空间上具有集聚效应，表现为高一高和低一低类型，空间自相关结果表明采用传统最小二乘法估算将造成有偏估计；各个解释变量对出生性别比的影响在地区上存在空间差异；经济发展、文化因素与人口出生性别比之间具有倒“U”型关系，现阶段大部分农村地区经济发展水平已越过转折点，但文化程度尚未达到“阈值”；当实际生育率高于政策生育率时，会出现计划生育政策实施越严格、出生性别比失衡越严重现象。
본문운용지리신식계통적탐색성공간수거분석방법，고찰중국농촌인구출생성별비적공간분포격국급기연변특점。재차기출상，운용지리공간효응적공간변계수적지리가권회귀모형，고찰경제발전、성진화수평、문화인소、사회보장인소、생육정책등대인구출생성별비적영향，식별각인소대농촌인구출생성별비영향적지구차이。연구결과현시：출생성별비재공간상구유집취효응，표현위고일고화저일저류형，공간자상관결과표명채용전통최소이승법고산장조성유편고계；각개해석변량대출생성별비적영향재지구상존재공간차이；경제발전、문화인소여인구출생성별비지간구유도“U”형관계，현계단대부분농촌지구경제발전수평이월과전절점，단문화정도상미체도“역치”；당실제생육솔고우정책생육솔시，회출현계화생육정책실시월엄격、출생성별비실형월엄중현상。
Existing literature rarely investigated the spatial heterogeneity of sex ratio at birth in China. Us- ing the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial analysis of GIS, the paper presents the spa- tial distribution and evolution characteristics of sex ratio at birth in China＇ s rural areas. Applying a spatial- ly varying-coefficient based on geographically weighted regression model, this paper empirically analyzes the spatial heterogeneity influence of economic development, urbanization, cultural factors, social security factors and the family planning policy on sex ratio at birth in China＇s rural areas. The conclusion shows that sex ratio at birth has a characteristics of spatial autocorrelation and spatial accumulative effect. The result means that we can not use the traditional OLS method. The influence of explanatory variables on sex ratio at birth exist difference in different areas. Economic development and sex ratio at birth, cultural factors and sex ratio at birth have an inverted ＂U＂ relationship. At the present, the level of economic development has crossed the turning point in most of rural areas, but the level of education has not reached the threshold. When the actual fertility rate is higher than the policy fertility rate, the more strict family planning policy is implemented, the more serious the imbalance of sex ratio at birth is. Therefore, the government should improve the status of rural women and the rural social pension security system, and severely punish sex selective abortion behavior.