CAJ | 학술논문

失地人口是城市化进程中出现的特有群体，对于吉林省这样的农业大省而言，认识并解决好失地人口问题尤为重要。本文在对失地人口数进行估算后，使用ARIMA模型对失地人口的变动趋势进行拟合，发现失地人口具有滞后性特征，进而利用模型对未来的失地人口数量进行预测。在此基础上，从土地制度、经济发展因素以及社会保障因素等方面对解决失地人口问题提出建议。
실지인구시성시화진정중출현적특유군체，대우길림성저양적농업대성이언，인식병해결호실지인구문제우위중요。본문재대실지인구수진행고산후，사용ARIMA모형대실지인구적변동추세진행의합，발현실지인구구유체후성특정，진이이용모형대미래적실지인구수량진행예측。재차기출상，종토지제도、경제발전인소이급사회보장인소등방면대해결실지인구문제제출건의。
Landless populationis a special group in the process of urbanization. For the Jilin province, it is particularly important to realize and solve the problem. Since there is no specific statistics for landless popu- lation, we have estimated the fitting analysis of landless population trend by using ARIMA model, and found that it has a lag characteristics, then predicate the future change of landless population quantity. Base on the ARIMA model, we put forward many suggestions to solve the problem of landless population from the aspects of the land system, economic development and social security factors.