CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过建立一个包含多种类型消费者（城市市民、城市非市民及农民）和地方政府的理论框架，分析．了城镇化对于我国居民消费率的影响，并选取全国176个城市2001年到2010年的数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明，城镇化水平提高能够推动城市消费率的增长，但城镇化速度过快则会阻碍消费率增长。实证显示这一关系在我国不同地区间存在显著区别，中部城市比东部城市更容易通过扩大人口规模来提高城市生产能力和消费率增速，而东部城市只有通过提升农民工福利待遇，才能够促进消费率增长。进一步，本文还通过参数估计给出了我国城市人口集聚效应的产出弹性。
본문통과건립일개포함다충류형소비자（성시시민、성시비시민급농민）화지방정부적이론광가，분석．료성진화대우아국거민소비솔적영향，병선취전국176개성시2001년도2010년적수거진행료실증검험。연구결과표명，성진화수평제고능구추동성시소비솔적증장，단성진화속도과쾌칙회조애소비솔증장。실증현시저일관계재아국불동지구간존재현저구별，중부성시비동부성시경용역통과확대인구규모래제고성시생산능력화소비솔증속，이동부성시지유통과제승농민공복리대우，재능구촉진소비솔증장。진일보，본문환통과삼수고계급출료아국성시인구집취효응적산출탄성。
Based on a theoretical model which consists of multiple consumers（ the city labors, the rural migrant workers and the farmers）and the city governments, this paper explains how urbanization affects Chinese household consumption rate. We also perform a regression analysis of the data from 2001 to 2010 in 176 cities. The results show that the growth of consumption rate is increased by urbanization, but decreased by the raise of urbanization speed. These relationships are different between regions according to the empirical analysis. Compared with the eastern cities, the central ones can enhance urban productivity and consumption rate growth much more by increasing their population. For eastern cities, the only way to promote the growth of consumption rate is to improve the social welfare of rural migrant workers. Our empirical works also estimate the output elasticity of urban agglomeration in China.