昆明理工大学学报：社会科学版
昆明理工大學學報：社會科學版
곤명리공대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)
2014年
3期
73~79
,共null页
碳锁定时间 碳锁定趋势 碳承载力 碳超载量 碳超载率 判定模型
碳鎖定時間 碳鎖定趨勢 碳承載力 碳超載量 碳超載率 判定模型
탄쇄정시간 탄쇄정추세 탄승재력 탄초재량 탄초재솔 판정모형
carbon lock-in time;carbon lock-in trend;carbon loading capacity;carbon overload qual-ity;rate of carbon overload;criteria model
通过建立包括陆地、湿地和海洋的碳承载力、碳超载率的计算模型，采用供需平衡法建立了区域碳锁定时间和趋势的判定模型。以有着“植物王国”和“基因宝库”之称以及水电资源相对丰富的云南省为例，对该省的碳锁定时间、趋势进行了实证研究。实证分析结果显示，云南省自2002年后开始出现了碳锁定现象且趋势越来越严重，若不进行强有力的外界干扰，这种趋势将一直延续下去。结合即使“十一·五”低碳目标的完成也没能减轻云南省碳锁定加剧的趋势，提出把减轻碳超载、控制能源消费总量、提升碳承载力纳入低碳经济发展的目标管理。
通過建立包括陸地、濕地和海洋的碳承載力、碳超載率的計算模型，採用供需平衡法建立瞭區域碳鎖定時間和趨勢的判定模型。以有著“植物王國”和“基因寶庫”之稱以及水電資源相對豐富的雲南省為例，對該省的碳鎖定時間、趨勢進行瞭實證研究。實證分析結果顯示，雲南省自2002年後開始齣現瞭碳鎖定現象且趨勢越來越嚴重，若不進行彊有力的外界榦擾，這種趨勢將一直延續下去。結閤即使“十一·五”低碳目標的完成也沒能減輕雲南省碳鎖定加劇的趨勢，提齣把減輕碳超載、控製能源消費總量、提升碳承載力納入低碳經濟髮展的目標管理。
통과건립포괄륙지、습지화해양적탄승재력、탄초재솔적계산모형，채용공수평형법건립료구역탄쇄정시간화추세적판정모형。이유착“식물왕국”화“기인보고”지칭이급수전자원상대봉부적운남성위례，대해성적탄쇄정시간、추세진행료실증연구。실증분석결과현시，운남성자2002년후개시출현료탄쇄정현상차추세월래월엄중，약불진행강유력적외계간우，저충추세장일직연속하거。결합즉사“십일·오”저탄목표적완성야몰능감경운남성탄쇄정가극적추세，제출파감경탄초재、공제능원소비총량、제승탄승재력납입저탄경제발전적목표관리。
In this paper, the criteria models on carbon lock-in time and trend are proposed based on the carbon loading capacity model and the rate of carbon overload of land, marsh swamp everglade and ocean with the balance law of supply and demand. The empirical study has been done about Yunnan Province which is known as “The Kingdom of Vegetable” and “The Treasure Trove of Genes” and for its rich hydropower re-sources. The carbon lock-in phenomenon has appeared in Yunnan Province ever since 2002 and is more and more serious. Without interference, this trend would continue. During the National“Eleventh Five-year Plan”period, the accomplishment of“The Low Carbon Target” Yunnan provincial government has not yet reduced the carbon lock-in trend. The paper thereby suggests that controlling the carbon overload quality trend, energy consumption and improving the carbon loading capacity should be included in the target management of low-carbon economic development.
