CAJ | 학술논문

文章采用参与式地理信息系统（PGIS）技术，模拟景区未来典型自然灾害风险情景，建立典型致灾因子强度与灾害风险情景对应关系；对旅游资源、旅游设施进行分类，分析游客居民景区内时空分布特征，建立致灾因子强度与景区承载体的脆弱性对应关系；最后通过拟合风险曲线，建立景区综合灾损模型并预测出多情景年均损失。综合景区利益相关方可接受风险，基于灾损和防灾成本进行风险决策。案例研究以九寨沟树正景群为例，模拟九寨沟在分别遭遇20、50、100、200、500、1000年一遇6种暴雨情景下引发泥石流的流速、流量和冲击力，建立6种情景泥石流与树正景群脆弱性关系；预测6种情景潜在损失和人员伤亡；结合可接受风险，提出九寨沟树正寨未来自然灾害防灾降险措施。
문장채용삼여식지리신식계통（PGIS）기술，모의경구미래전형자연재해풍험정경，건립전형치재인자강도여재해풍험정경대응관계；대여유자원、여유설시진행분류，분석유객거민경구내시공분포특정，건립치재인자강도여경구승재체적취약성대응관계；최후통과의합풍험곡선，건립경구종합재손모형병예측출다정경년균손실。종합경구이익상관방가접수풍험，기우재손화방재성본진행풍험결책。안례연구이구채구수정경군위례，모의구채구재분별조우20、50、100、200、500、1000년일우6충폭우정경하인발니석류적류속、류량화충격력，건립6충정경니석류여수정경군취약성관계；예측6충정경잠재손실화인원상망；결합가접수풍험，제출구채구수정채미래자연재해방재강험조시。
Natural disasters in tourist areas show a trend of rapid increase in recent years and have caused great losses. It has become a main bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of tourism in more than 60% of the tourist areas in China, and has aroused great attention of governments and scientists. This research puts forward the natural disaster risk assessment method in tourist area by the introduction and development of the concept of scenario analysis technique. The method using Participatory Geographic Information System （PGIS） technology, first designs multi-scenarios of hazards in tourist areas, and establishes the curve of relationship between hazard intensity and risk scenarios. Secondly, it establishes the curve of relationship between hazard intensity and vulnerability by making a classification of the exposure including tourism resources and tourist facilities according to the structure in the serving years. Finally, it establishes the comprehensive disaster loss model and calculates the average annual losses in the tourist area by fitting the risk curve. The case takes the example of Jiuzhai Valley （Shuzheng Scenic Spots）, a World Natural Heritage site. The research calculates the speed, quantity and impact force of debris flows under 6 kinds of storm scenarios, namely, in 20-year, 50-year, 100-year,200-year,500-year and 1,000-year return periods. Then by using Participatory GIS to make survey of tourists and residents in Shuzheng Vallage, it classifies the structure and serving years of different buildings and tourism resource facilities, and sets up vulnerability curves between debris flow and the two Spots under 6 different scenarios; learning the property and building conditions of each household and calculating potential losses that the 6 scenarios may respectively cause to the two villages. Ultimately, carrying out overall analysis of disaster prevention costs and benefits targeted at the acceptable risks and raising measures for natural disaster prevention in Jiuzhai Valley. The research has several features by contrasting with similar studies： 1） The paper provides a systematic method that analyses the hazard, exposure and vulnerability in tourist areas unlike the analysis natural disaster risk assessments in general city communities. Vulnerability in tourist areas is much more complicated compared to the general community as it includes tourism resources, tourism facilities, tourists and residents, et al. 2） The paper adopts Participatory GIS （PGIS） technology, multi-scenarios analysis by calculating potential losses despite of the traditional method of making risk assessment by using AHP to establish an index system and weights. 3） The research chooses small- scale Jiuzhai Valley despite of the traditional study area of large and medium scales. By using questionnaire and interview, supported by scenario technology, the research will greatly enhance the exactness and reliability of the natural disaster risk assessment.