CAJ | 학술논문

木材进出口量和木材进口价格之间互为格兰杰因果关系，国内木材供给量变化能够引起木材进出口量和木材进口价格的变动。Johansen协整检验的结果表明：中国木材进出口量和木材进口价格之间存在长期的均衡关系。以国内木材供给量为外生变量，木材进出口量、木材进口价格为内生变量构建VAR模型，并用广义脉冲响应函数分析木材进出口量和木材进口价格之间双向的影响机制，研究结果表明木材进口价格的一个脉冲冲击对木材进出口量产生正面影响，分别在第三期和第四期达到最大值，国内木材需求旺盛是影响木材进口和出口的主要原因。
목재진출구량화목재진구개격지간호위격란걸인과관계，국내목재공급량변화능구인기목재진출구량화목재진구개격적변동。Johansen협정검험적결과표명：중국목재진출구량화목재진구개격지간존재장기적균형관계。이국내목재공급량위외생변량，목재진출구량、목재진구개격위내생변량구건VAR모형，병용엄의맥충향응함수분석목재진출구량화목재진구개격지간쌍향적영향궤제，연구결과표명목재진구개격적일개맥충충격대목재진출구양산생정면영향，분별재제삼기화제사기체도최대치，국내목재수구왕성시영향목재진구화출구적주요원인。
The article shows bidirectional Granger causality among the timber import and output and import price, and the domestic timber supply can Granger cause these variables. While Johansen Cointegration tests imply the long-term Equilibrium relationship among the three relevant variables. After establishing the VAR model, the bidirectional influence mechanism can be explained by Impulse Response Function, which makes that the impulse of import price of timber causes a positive impact on the import and output of timber, reaching the peak in the third and fourth period, Maybe the great need of domestic market is the reason.